Research Database
Displaying 101 - 120 of 138
Current status and future needs of the BehavePlus fire modeling system
Year: 2013
The BehavePlus Fire Modeling System is among the most widely used systems for wildland fire prediction. It is designed for use in a range of tasks including wildfire behaviour prediction, prescribed fire planning, fire investigation, fuel hazard assessment, fire model understanding, communication and research. BehavePlus is based on mathematical models for fire behaviour, fire effects and fire environment. It is a point system for which conditions are constant for each calculation, but is designed to encourage examination of the effect of a range of conditions through tables and graphs.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Year: 2013
Wildland fire management has moved beyond a singular focus on suppression, calling for wildfire management for ecological benefit where no critical human assets are at risk. Processes causing direct effects and indirect, long-term ecosystem changes are complex and multidimensional. Robust risk-assessment tools are required that account for highly variable effects on multiple values-at-risk and balance competing objectives, to support decision making. Providing wildland fire managers with risk-analysis tools requires a broad scientific foundation in fire behaviour and effects prediction as…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Crown fire behavior characteristics and prediction in conifer forests: a state-of-knowledge synthesis
Year: 2013
Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) project 09-S-03-1 was undertaken in response to JFSP Project Announcement No. FA-RFA09-0002 with respect to a synthesis on extreme fire behavior or more specifically a review and analysis of the literature dealing with certain features of crown fire behavior in conifer forests in the United States and adjacent regions of Canada. The key findings presented are organized along nine topical areas: types of crown fires; crown fire initiation; crown fire propagation; crown fire rate of spread; crown fire intensity and flame zone characteristics; crown fire area…
Publication Type: Report
Optimising fuel treatments over time and space
Year: 2013
Fuel treatments have been widely used as a tool to reduce catastrophic wildland fire risks in many forests around the world. However, it is a challenging task for forest managers to prioritise where, when and how to implement fuel treatments across a large forest landscape. In this study, an optimisation model was developed for long-term fuel management decisions at a landscape scale. Using a simulated annealing algorithm, the model optimises locations and timing of fuel treatments, while considering changes in forest dynamics over time, fire behaviour and spread, values at risk, and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Land Manager's Guide for Creating Fire-resistant Forests
Year: 2013
This publication provides an overview of how various silvicultural treatments affect fuel and fire behavior, and how to create fire-resistant forests. In properly treated, fire-resistant forests, fire intensity is reduced and overstory trees are more likely to survive than in untreated forests. Fire-resistant forests are not “fireproof” – under the right conditions, any forest will burn. Much of what we present here is pertinent to the drier forests of the Pacific Northwest, which have become extremely dense and fire prone.
Publication Type: Report
Is burn severity related to fire intensity? Observations from landscape scale remote sensing
Year: 2013
Biomass burning by wildland fires has significant ecological, social and economic impacts. Satellite remote sensing provides direct measurements of radiative energy released by the fire (i.e. fire intensity) and surrogate measures of ecological change due to the fire (i.e. fire or burn severity). Despite anecdotal observations causally linking fire intensity with severity, the nature of any relationship has not been examined over extended spatial scales. We compare fire intensities defined by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Fire Radiative Power (MODIS FRP) products with Landsat-…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: the role of temporal scale
Year: 2013
The relationship between large fire occurrence and drought has important implications for fire prediction under current and future climates. This study’s primary objective was to evaluate correlations between drought and fire-danger-rating indices representing short- and long-term drought, to determine which had the strongest relationships with large fire occurrence at the scale of the western United States during the years 1984–2008. We combined 4–8-km gridded drought and fire-danger-rating indices with information on fires greater than 404.7 ha (1000 acres). To account for differences in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Effects of salvage logging and pile-and-burn on fuel loading, potential fire behavior, fuel consumption and emissions
Year: 2013
We used a combination of field measurements and simulation modelling to quantify the effects of salvage logging, and a combination of salvage logging and pile-and-burn fuel surface fuel treatment (treatment combination), on fuel loadings, fire behaviour, fuel consumption and pollutant emissions at three points in time: post-windstorm (before salvage logging), post-salvage logging and post-surface fuel treatment (pile-and-burn). Salvage logging and the treatment combination significantly reduced fuel loadings, fuelbed depth and smoke emissions. Salvage logging and the treatment combination…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Models for predicting fuel consumption in sage-brush-dominated ecosystems
Year: 2013
Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt.) ecosystems. Models are proposed for predicting fuel consumption during prescribed fires in the fall and the spring. Total prefire fuel loading ranged from 5.3–23.6 Mg · ha−1; between 32% and 92% of the total loading was composed of live and dead big sagebrush.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildfire exposure to analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Year: 2012
We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Simulating effects of climate change and ecological restoration on fire behaviour in a south-western USA ponderosa pine forest
Year: 2012
Global climate change has the potential to affect future wildfire activity, particularly in south-western USA ponderosa pine forests that have been substantially altered by land-use practices and aggressive fire suppression. Using two regional general circulation models for the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario, Australia's CSIRO:MK3 and Germany's MPIM:ECHAMS, we predicted fire behaviour under the 80th, 90th and 97th percentiles of future fire-weather conditions at a study site on the Kaibab National Forest, Arizona. We then altered the fuel structure by simulating alternative ecological…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Moisture desorption in mechanically masticated fuels: effects of particle fracturing and fuelbed compaction
Year: 2012
Mechanical mastication is increasingly used as a wildland fuel treatment, reducing standing trees and shrubs to compacted fuelbeds of fractured woody fuels. One major shortcoming in our understanding of these fuelbeds is how particle fracturing influences moisture gain or loss, a primary determinant of fire behaviour. To better understand fuel moisture dynamics, we measured particle and fuelbed drying rates of masticated Arctostaphylos manzanita and Ceanothus velutinus shrubs, common targets of mastication in fire-prone western USA ecosystems. Drying rates of intact and fractured particles…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Estimation of Wildfire Size and Risk Changes Due to Fuels Treatments
Year: 2012
Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Properties affecting the consumption of sound and rotten coarse woody debris in northern Idaho: a preliminary investigation using laboratory fires
Year: 2012
This study evaluates the consumption of coarse woody debris in various states of decay. Samples from a northern Idaho mixed-conifer forest were classified using three different classification methods, ignited with two different ignition methods and consumption was recorded. Intrinsic properties that change with decay were measured including carbon to nitrogen ratio, density, heat content, lignin content, moisture content and surface area-to-volume ratio. Consumption for logs in different stages of decay is reported with characterisation of wood properties. Results indicate very decayed coarse…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Predicting Dry Lightning Risk Nationwide
Year: 2012
Meteorologists developed two formulas to predict the probability of dry lightning throughout the continental United States and Alaska and parts of Canada. Predictions are made daily and are accessible through the web at http://www.airfire.org/tools/daily-fi re-weather/dry-lightning-probability. The emphasis is on the western United States, where dry lightning is a more common occurrence. Predictions are based on identifying days on which lightning is expected and separately determining whether there is likely to be at least 1/10th inch of accompanying rain. The formulas are run with the…
Publication Type: Report
Seasonal variation in surface fuel moisture between unthinned and thinned mixed conifer forest, northern California, USA
Year: 2012
Reducing stand density is often used as a tool for mitigating the risk of high-intensity crown fires. However, concern has been expressed that opening stands might lead to greater drying of surface fuels, contributing to increased fire risk. The objective of this study was to determine whether woody fuel moisture differed between unthinned and thinned mixed-conifer stands. Sections of logs representing the 1000- and 10 000-h fuel sizes were placed at 72 stations within treatment units in the fall (autumn) of 2007. Following snow-melt in 2008, 10-h fuel sticks were added and all fuels were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin
Year: 2012
We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub-basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate-Induced Changes in Lake Ecosystem Structure Inferred from Coupled Neo- and Paleoecological Approaches
Year: 2012
Over the 20th century, surface water temperatures have increased in many lake ecosystems around the world, but long-term trends in the vertical thermal structure of lakes remain unclear, despite the strong control that thermal stratification exerts on the biological response of lakes to climate change. Here we used both neo- and paleoecological approaches to develop a fossil-based inference model for lake mixing depths and thereby refine understanding of lake thermal structure change. We focused on three common planktonic diatom taxa, the distributions of which previous research suggests…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Integrating Theoretical Climate and Fire Effects on Savanna and Forest Systems
Year: 2012
The role of fire and climate in determining savanna and forest distributions requires comprehensive theoretical reevaluation. Empirical studies show that climate constrains maximum tree cover and that fire feedbacks can reduce tree cover substantially, but neither the stability nor the dynamics of these systems are well understood. A theoretical integration of rainfall effects with fire processes in particular is lacking. We use simple, well-supported assumptions about the percolation dynamics of fire spread and the demographic effects of climate and fire on trees to build a dynamic model…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fuels and Fire Behavior Dynamics in Bark Beetle-Attacked Forests in Western North America and Implications for Fire Management
Year: 2012
Declining forest health attributed to associations between extensive bark beetle-caused tree mortality, accumulations of hazardous fuels, wildfire, and climate change have catalyzed changes in forest health and wildfire protection policies of land management agencies. These changes subsequently prompted research to investigate the extent to which bark beetle-altered fuel complexes affect fire behavior. Although not yet rigorously quantified, the results of the investigations, in addition to a growing body of operational experience and research, indicates that predictable changes in surface,…
Publication Type: Journal Article