Research Database
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5
Gazing into the flames: A guide to assessing the impacts of climate change on landscape fire
Year: 2026
Widespread impacts of landscape fire on ecosystems, societies, and the climate system itself have heightened the need to understand the potential future trajectory of fire under continued climate change. However, the complexity of fire makes climate change impact assessment challenging. The climate system influences fire in many ways, including through vegetation, fuel dryness, fire weather, and ignition. Furthermore, fire’s impacts are highly diverse, spanning threats to human and ecological values and beneficial ecosystem and cultural services. Here, we discuss the art and science of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Exposure and carbon risk for mature and old-growth forests from severe wildfire in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A.
Year: 2026
Mature and old-growth forests (MOG) provide essential ecosystem services, yet they face increasing threats. Currently, high-intensity, high-severity wildfires are the main driver for loss of MOG on federally managed forests across the United States. Quantifying MOG forests with greatest exposure to stand-replacing wildfires provides essential information for land managers. We integrated geospatial data from fire behavior simulations (fire intensity), fire refugia prediction (fire severity), forest type mapping, and carbon estimates to assess exposure of MOG forests to stand-replacing…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the western United States: testing the principles of a fire-safe forest
Year: 2011
We used the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) to simulate fuel treatment effects on 45 1 62 stands in low- to midelevation dry forests (e.g., ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Doug!. ex. P. & C. Laws.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) of the western United States. We evaluated treatment effects on predicted post-treatment fire behavior (fire type) and fire hazard (torching index). FFE-FVS predicts that thinning and surface fuel treatments reduced crown fire behavior relative to no treatment; a large proportion of stands were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Northwest Forest Plan -- The First 15 Years: Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats
Year: 2011
This is the second in a series of periodic monitoring reports on northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat trends on federally administered lands since implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994.Here we summarize results from a population analysis that included data from long-term demographic studies during 1985–2008. This data was analyzed separately by study area, and also in a meta-analysis across all study areas to assess temporal and spatial patterns in fecundity, apparent survival, recruitment, and annual rates of population change. Estimated…
Publication Type: Report
Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Year: 2011
In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from…
Publication Type: Journal Article