Gazing into the flames: A guide to assessing the impacts of climate change on landscape fire

Widespread impacts of landscape fire on ecosystems, societies, and the climate system itself have heightened the need to understand the potential future trajectory of fire under continued climate change. However, the complexity of fire makes climate change impact assessment challenging. The climate system influences fire in many ways, including through vegetation, fuel dryness, fire weather, and ignition. Furthermore, fire’s impacts are highly diverse, spanning threats to human and ecological values and beneficial ecosystem and cultural services. Here, we discuss the art and science of projecting climate change impacts on landscape fire. This not only includes how fire, its drivers, and its impacts are modeled, but critically it also includes how projections of the climate system are developed. By raising and discussing these issues, we aim to foster the development of more robust and useful fire projections, help interpret existing assessments, and support society in charting a course toward a sustainable fire future.