Research Database
Displaying 161 - 180 of 191
Modelling conditional burn probability patterns for large wildland fires
Year: 2013
We present a technique for modelling conditional burn probability patterns in two dimensions for large wildland fires. The intended use for the model is strategic program planning when information about future fire weather and event durations is unavailable and estimates of the average probabilistic shape and extent of large fires on a landscape are needed. To model average conditional burn probability patterns, we organised historical fire data from Yellowstone National Park, USA, into a set of grids; one grid per fire. We captured various spatial relationships inherent in the gridded data…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Bark Beetles and Fire: Two forces of nature transforming western forests
Year: 2012
Publication Type: Report
Atmospheric Interactions with Wildland Fire Behaviour I. Basic Surface Interactions, Vertical Profiles and Synoptic Structures
Year: 2012
This paper is the first of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. This first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. (The companion paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Drivers of Effectiveness of Prescribed Fire Treatment
Year: 2012
Prescribed burning for fuel reduction is a major strategy for reducing the risk from unplanned fire. Although there are theoretical studies suggesting that prescribed fire has a strong negative influence on the subsequent area of unplanned fire (so-called leverage), many empirical studies find a more modest influence. Here, I develop a series of simulations to explore the landscape drivers of leverage. Leverage declines with treatment level in a nonlinear, “decay” relationship, implying diminishing effectiveness. The spatial configuration of the prescribed fire treatment has a major effect:…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Review of Recent Advances in Risk Analysis for Wildfire Management
Year: 2012
Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyse the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels management planning scales from individual incidents to national, strategic interagency programs. After a brief review of the three components of fire risk – likelihood, intensity and effects – this paper reviews recent advances…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Health Effects of Wildland Fire Smoke: Insight from Public Health Science Studies
Year: 2012
Due to the composition and dispersion of wildland fire smoke, particulate matter is the principal pollutant of public health concern. Effects will vary based on the source of smoke but predominantly impact local communities in the same way. Studies of the effects of PM from non-fire sources show that long-term exposure can reduce lung function and cause the development of chronic bronchitis. Short-term exposure (hours or days), typical of wildland fire events, can aggravate lung disease, leading to asthma attacks and acute bronchitis. These effects can also increase the susceptibility to…
Publication Type: Report
Smoke Science Plan: The Path Forward
Year: 2012
Wildland fire managers face increasingly steep challenges to meet air quality standards while planning prescribed fire and its inevitable smoke emissions. The goals of sound fire management practices, including fuel load reduction through prescribed burning, are often challenged by the need to minimize smoke impacts on communities. Wildfires, of course, also produce smoke, so managers must constantly weigh the benefits and risks of controlled burns and their generated emissions against potential wildfires and their generated emissions and must communicate those benefits and risks to the…
Publication Type: Report
Proceedings of the 3rd Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire Conference
Year: 2012
This proceedings contains articles, posters, and abstracts of presentations from the third Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire Conference held 17-19 April 2012 in Seattle Washington. The conference covered the social issues at the root of wildland fire management’s most serious challenges. Specific topics included: firefighter and public safety; shared responsibility for Community Wildland Fire Safety, public perception and management of wildland and prescribed fire smoke, social networks and communication in management of fire risk, organizational communication, preparedness to name just a few…
Publication Type: Conference Proceedings
Atmospheric Interactions with Wildland Fire Behaviour II. Plume and Vortex Dynamics
Year: 2012
This paper is the second of two reviewing scientific literature from 100 years of research addressing interactions between the atmosphere and fire behaviour. These papers consider research on the interactions between the fuels burning at any instant and the atmosphere, and the interactions between the atmosphere and those fuels that will eventually burn in a given fire. The first paper reviews the progression from the surface atmospheric properties of temperature, humidity and wind to horizontal and vertical synoptic structures and ends with vertical atmospheric profiles. This second paper…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity
Year: 2012
Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildfire exposure to analysis on the national forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Year: 2012
We analyzed wildfire exposure for key social and ecological features on the national forests in Oregon and Washington. The forests contain numerous urban interfaces, old growth forests, recreational sites, and habitat for rare and endangered species. Many of these resources are threatened by wildfire, especially in the east Cascade Mountains fire-prone forests. The study illustrates the application of wildfire simulation for risk assessment where the major threat is from large and rare naturally ignited fires, versus many previous studies that have focused on risk driven by frequent and small…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Woodpecker habitat after fire
Year: 2011
Public land managers are asked to minimize fuel levels after fi res, including using techniques such as salvage logging. They are also responsible for maintaining suitable wildlife habitat, especially for species of concern to state and federal agencies. An area where these responsibilities could conflict is in the use of salvage logging in burned-over areas that also represent good habitat for certain wildlife such as woodpeckers. Controversy over this conflict has led to litigation. Public land management agencies need consistent design criteria to maintain suitable habitats for these birds…
Publication Type: Report
Assessing Fuel Treatment Effectiveness After the Tripod Complex Fires
Year: 2011
Over the past 50 years, wildfire frequency and area burned have increased in the dry forests of western North America. To help reduce high surface fuel loads and potential wildfire severity, a variety of fuel treatments are applied. In spite of the common use of these management practices, there have been relatively few opportunities to quantitatively measure their efficacy in wildfires. That changed with the 2006 Tripod Complex fires in the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest in Washington—one of the largest fire events in Washington state over the past five decades. A serendipitous…
Publication Type: Report
Ponderosa Pine Biomass Relationships Vary with Site Treatment and Site Productivity
Year: 2011
Allometric equations, which express biomass as a function of tree size, are often used to estimate the amount of fuel in a site’s canopy. Most managers assume that one allometric equation per species is sufficient, or that any error introduced by extrapolation is irrelevant. This work showed, however, that the allometric biomass relationship for ponderosa pine likely changes over space and time. The researchers concluded that for maximum accuracy, allometric equations for ponderosa pine should account for stand management history and site productivity. Thinned trees replaced their foliage…
Publication Type: Report
Introducing FuelCalc: A New Tool that Helps Turn Static Inventory Data into Actionable Information
Year: 2010
Fuel and fire managers perform fuel treatments to manage and restore ecosystems and protect resources. In order to plan effective fuel treatments that accomplish objectives, managers need to analyze fuel conditions and document the expected fire behavior and fire effects both before and after fuel treatment. To help accomplish these goals, a new software tool named FuelCalc was created. FuelCalc facilitates use of a wide range of inventory data and fuel characteristics to help calculate fuel quantities and qualities to estimate potential fire behavior, fire effects, and smoke production. By…
Publication Type: Report
Masticating Fuels: Effects on Prescribed Fire Behavior and Subsequent Vegetation Effects
Year: 2009
In fire management, there is an ongoing quest to find cost-effective, ecologically sound, and risk-reducing approaches to restoring dry conifer forests. So far little is known about the effectiveness of using mastication equipment in conjunction with prescribed burning to help meet management and restoration goals. Richy Harrod is the Deputy Fire Management Officer at the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest in Wenatchee, Washington. He and his colleagues began to address this knowledge gap and found that mastication may be a cost-effective and important tool for managers looking for additional…
Publication Type: Report