Research Database
Displaying 241 - 260 of 276
Afternoon Rain More Likely Over Drier Soils
Year: 2012
Land surface properties, such as vegetation cover and soil moisture, influence the partitioning of radiative energy between latent and sensible heat fluxes in daytime hours. During dry periods, soil-water deficit can limit evapotranspiration, leading to warmer and drier conditions in the lower atmosphere. Soil moisture can influence the development of convective storms through such modifications of low-level atmospheric temperature and humidity, which in turn feeds back on soil moisture. Yet there is considerable uncertainty in how soil moisture affects convective storms across the world,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projected range shifting by montane mammals under climate change: implications for Cascadia's National Parks
Year: 2012
We examined potential impacts of climate change over the next century on eight mammal species of conservation concern in western Washington State, under four warming scenarios. Using two species distribution models, including a logistic regression-based model and the "maximum entropy" (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the location and extent of the potential current and future range of each species based on a suite of environmental and geographical variables. Both models projected significant losses in range size within the focal area over the next century across all warming scenarios. Projections…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Comprehensive Guide to Fuel Management Practices for Dry Mixed Conifer Forests in the Northwestern United States
Year: 2012
This guide describes the benefits, opportunities, and trade-offs concerning fuel treatments in the dry mixed conifer forests of northern California and the Klamath Mountains, Pacific Northwest Interior, northern and central Rocky Mountains, and Utah. Multiple interacting disturbances and diverse physical settings have created a forest mosaic with historically low- to mixed-severity fire regimes. Analysis of forest inventory data found nearly 80 percent of these forests rate hazardous by at least one measure and 20 to 30 percent rate hazardous by multiple measures. Modeled mechanical…
Publication Type: Report
Spatio-temporal prediction of site index based on forest inventories and climate change scenarios
Year: 2012
A methodological framework is provided for the quantification of climate change effects on site index. Spatio-temporal predictions of site index are derived for six major tree species in the German state of Baden-Württemberg using simplified universal kriging (UK) based on large data sets from forest inventories and a climate sensitive site-index model. It is shown by a simulation study that, with the underlying large sample size, residual kriging using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the mean function leads to an approximately unbiased spatial predictor. Moreover, the simulated…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity
Year: 2012
Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Impact of postfire logging on soil bacterial and fungal communities on biogeochemistry in a mixed-conifer forest in central Oregon
Year: 2012
Aims Postfire logging recoups the economic value of timber killed by wildfire, but whether such forest management activity supports or impedes forest recovery in stands differing in structure from historic conditions remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of mechanical logging after wildfire on soil bacterial and fungal communities and other measures influencing soil productivity. Methods We compared soil bacterial and fungal communities and biogeochemical responses of 1) soils compacted, and 2) soils compacted and then subsoiled, to 3) soils receiving no…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildfire severity mediates fluxes of plant material and terrestrial invertebrates to mountain streams
Year: 2012
Wildfire effects upon riparian plant community structure, composition, and distribution may strongly influence the dynamic relationships between riparian vegetation and stream ecosystems. However, few studies have examined the influence of fire on these processes. To that end, we compared the quantity and composition of allochthonous inputs of plant material and terrestrial invertebrates among stream tributaries characterized by various degrees of burn severity 5 years post-fire in the Frank Church Wilderness of central Idaho, USA. The magnitude of inputs of coniferous leaf litter to unburned…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fuels and Fire Behavior Dynamics in Bark Beetle-Attacked Forests in Western North America and Implications for Fire Management
Year: 2012
Declining forest health attributed to associations between extensive bark beetle-caused tree mortality, accumulations of hazardous fuels, wildfire, and climate change have catalyzed changes in forest health and wildfire protection policies of land management agencies. These changes subsequently prompted research to investigate the extent to which bark beetle-altered fuel complexes affect fire behavior. Although not yet rigorously quantified, the results of the investigations, in addition to a growing body of operational experience and research, indicates that predictable changes in surface,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire Effects on the Spatial Patterning of Soil Properties in Sagebrush Steppe, USA: A Meta-Analysis
Year: 2012
Understanding effects of changes in ecological disturbance regimes on soil properties, and capacity of soil properties to resist disturbance, is important for assessing ecological condition. In this meta-analysis, we examined the resilience of surface soil properties and their spatial patterning to disturbance by fire in sagebrush steppe of North America – a biome currently experiencing increases in wildfire due to climate change. We reviewed 39 studies that reported on soil properties for sagebrush steppe with distinct microsite (undershrub and interspace) patterning that was or was not…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fuel Variability Following Wildfire in Forests with Mixed Severity Fire Regimes, Cascade Range, USA
Year: 2012
Fire severity influences post-burn structure and composition of a forest and the potential for a future fire to burn through the area. The effects of fire on forests with mixed severity fire regimes are difficult to predict and interpret because the quantity, structure, and composition of forest fuels vary considerably. This study examines the relationship between fire severity and post-burn fuel characteristics in forests with mixed severity fire regimes. We sampled live and dead canopy and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Comparative Hazard Assessment for Protected Species in a Fire-Prone Landscape
Year: 2012
We conducted a comparative hazard assessment for 325,000 ha in a fire-prone area of southwest Oregon, USA. The landscape contains a variety of land ownerships, fire regimes, and management strategies. Our comparative hazard assessment evaluated the effects of two management strategies on crown fire potential and northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) conservation: (1) no action, and (2) active manipulation of hazardous fuels. Model simulations indicated that active management of sites with high fire hazard was more favorable to spotted owl conservation over the long term (75 years…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Effectiveness of post-fire seeding at the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve, Washington
Year: 2011
In August 2007, the Milepost 17 and Wautoma fires burned a combined total of 77,349 acres (31,302 hectares) of the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve (ALE), part of the Hanford Reach National Monument administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Mid-Columbia National Wildlife Refuge. In 2008, the USFWS implemented a series of seeding and herbicide treatments to mitigate potential negative consequences of these fires, including mortality of native vegetation, invasion of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), and soil erosion. Treatments included combinations of seeding (drill…
Publication Type: Report
Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Year: 2011
In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the western United States: testing the principles of a fire-safe forest
Year: 2011
We used the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) to simulate fuel treatment effects on 45 1 62 stands in low- to midelevation dry forests (e.g., ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Doug!. ex. P. & C. Laws.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) of the western United States. We evaluated treatment effects on predicted post-treatment fire behavior (fire type) and fire hazard (torching index). FFE-FVS predicts that thinning and surface fuel treatments reduced crown fire behavior relative to no treatment; a large proportion of stands were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
After the Fire is Out
Year: 2011
Even before firefighters have left a burn site, a second wave of specialists is deployed. Their task: to assess the burn site; determine the level of risk to life, property, and ecological resources; and determine quickly the most effective postfire treatments for emergency stabilization and initial rehabilitation of the site. For the past 13 years, the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) has funded research on this critical phase of work, which often goes unnoticed after the fire is out. With support from the JFSP, scientists have made great strides in improving the tools available to assess…
Publication Type: Report
Northwest Forest Plan -- The First 15 Years: Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats
Year: 2011
This is the second in a series of periodic monitoring reports on northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat trends on federally administered lands since implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994.Here we summarize results from a population analysis that included data from long-term demographic studies during 1985–2008. This data was analyzed separately by study area, and also in a meta-analysis across all study areas to assess temporal and spatial patterns in fecundity, apparent survival, recruitment, and annual rates of population change. Estimated…
Publication Type: Report
Nontribal community recovery from wildfire five years later: The case of the Rodeo-Chediski fire
Year: 2011
Recent literature suggests that natural disasters such as wildfires often have the short-term effect of ‘‘bringing people together’’ while also under some circumstances generating social conflict at the local level. Conflict has been documented particularly when social relations are disembedded by nonlocal entities and there is a perceived loss of local agency. There is less agreement about longer term impacts. We present results of a re-study of a set of communities affected by the largest wildfire in Arizona history. The re-study uses structuration theory to suggest that while local…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Vegetation recovery after fire in the Klamath-Siskiyou region, southern Oregon
Year: 2011
This overview is intended to facilitate decisions regarding forest regeneration in the Klamath-Siskiyou Ecoregion. It summarizes the results of several scientific investigations that took place in the ecoregion. Some of the research occurred in areas without post-fire management, and other research occurred in moderately or intensively managed areas. Some of the research also occurred immediately after a wildfire, and other work occurred several decades later.
Publication Type: Report