Research Database
Displaying 61 - 80 of 199
Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
Year: 2024
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Landsat assessment of variable spectral recovery linked to post-fire forest structure in dry sub-boreal forests
Year: 2024
Forest disturbances such as wildfires can dramatically alter forest structure and composition, increasing the likelihood of ecosystem changes. Up-to-date and accurate measures of post-disturbance forest recovery in managed forests are critical, particularly for silvicultural planning. Measuring the live and dead vegetation post-fire is challenging because areas impacted by wildfire may be remote, difficult to access, and/or dangerous to survey. The difficulties of post-fire monitoring are compounded by the global increase in the frequency and severity of disturbances, as expansion of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
‘Mind the Gap’—reforestation needs vs. reforestation capacity in the western United States
Year: 2024
Tree establishment following severe or stand-replacing disturbance is critical for achieving U.S. climate change mitigation goals and for maintaining the co-benefits of intact forest ecosystems. In many contexts, natural post-fire tree regeneration is sufficient to maintain forest cover and associated ecosystem services, but increasingly the pattern and scale of disturbance exceeds ecological thresholds and active reforestation may be warranted. Our capacity to plant trees, however, is not keeping pace with reforestation needs. This shortfall is uniquely apparent in the western U.S., where…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Disentangling drivers of annual grass invasion: Abiotic susceptibility vs. fire-induced conversion to cheatgrass dominance in the sagebrush biome
Year: 2024
Invasive annual grasses are often facilitated by fire, yet they can become ecologically dominant in susceptible locations even in the absence of fire. We used an extensive vegetation plot database to model susceptibility to the invasive annual grass cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.) in the sagebrush biome as a function of climate and soil water availability variables. We built random forest models predicting cheatgrass presence or dominance (>15 % relative cover) under unburned (37,219 plots) and burned conditions (6340 plots). We mapped predicted probability of cheatgrass…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Forest thinning and prescribed burning treatments reduce wildfire severity and buffer the impacts of severe fire weather
Year: 2024
BackgroundThe capacity of forest fuel treatments to moderate the behavior and severity of subsequent wildfires depends on weather and fuel conditions at the time of burning. However, in-depth evaluations of how treatments perform are limited because encounters between wildfires and areas with extensive pre-fire data are rare. Here, we took advantage of a 1200-ha randomized and replicated experiment that burned almost entirely in a subsequent wildfire under a wide range of weather conditions. We compared the impacts of four fuel treatments on fire severity, including two thin-only, a thin-burn…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers
Year: 2024
Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global-scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year-to-year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Drought before fire increases tree mortality after fire
Year: 2024
Fire and drought are expected to increase in frequency and severity in temperate forests due to climate change. To evaluate whether drought increases the likelihood of post-fire tree mortality, we used a large database of tree survival and mortality from 32 years of wildland fires covering four dominant western North American conifers. We used Bayesian hierarchical modeling to predict the probability of individual tree mortality after fire based on species—Pinus contorta (lodgepole pine), Abies concolor (white fir), Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir), and Pinus…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Creating Fire-Adapted Communities Through Recovery: Case Studies from the United States and Australia
Year: 2023
Wildfires can be devastating for social and ecological systems, but the recovery period after wildfire presents opportunities to reduce future risk through adaptation. We use a collective case study approach to systematically compare social and ecological recovery following four major fire events in Australia and the United States: the 1998 wildfires in northeastern Florida; the 2003 Cedar fire in southern California; the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, southeastern Australia; and the 2011 Bastrop fires in Texas. Fires spurred similar policy changes, with an emphasis on education,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Factors influencing flood risk mitigation after wildfire: Insights for individual and collective action after the 2010 Schultz Fire
Year: 2023
Post-fire flooding is of significant concern in the U.S. Southwest, where burned areas can drastically alter local hydrology to increase the risk of floods and debris flows, posing new and dynamic flood risk to communities downslope that necessitate coordinated response across jurisdictional boundaries. However, limited research explores how residents in affected communities respond to post-fire flood risk, both individually and collectively. We address this need by exploring factors that may influence the uptake of individual and collective actions for post-fire flood mitigation after an…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Non-native plant invasion after fire in western USA varies by functional type and with climate
Year: 2023
Invasions by non-native plant species after fire can negatively affect important ecosystem services and lead to invasion-fire cycles that further degrade ecosystems. The relationship between fire and plant invasion is complex, and the risk of invasion varies greatly between functional types and across geographic scales. Here, we examined patterns and predictors of non-native plant invasion following fire across the western United States. We specifically analyzed how the abundance of non-native plants after fire was related to fire characteristics and environmental conditions, such as climate…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Smoke-weather interaction affects extreme wildfires in diverse coastal regions
Year: 2023
Extreme wildfires threaten human lives, air quality, and ecosystems. Meteorology plays a vital role in wildfire behaviors, and the links between wildfires and climate have been widely studied. However, it is not fully clear how fire-weather feedback affects short-term wildfire variability, which undermines our ability to mitigate fire disasters. Here, we show the primacy of synoptic- scale feedback in driving extreme fires in Mediterranean and monsoon climate regimes in the West Coast of the United States and Southeastern Asia. We found that radiative effects of smoke aerosols can modify near…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Higher burn severity stimulates postfire vegetation and carbon recovery in California
Year: 2023
As the climate continues to warm, the severity of wildfires is increasing. However, the potential impact of higher burn severity on ecosystem resilience and regional carbon balance is still not clear. There are ongoing debates regarding whether increased burn severity stimulates or delays postfire vegetation and carbon recovery. In this study, we utilized remote sensing data to analyze burn severity and vegetation observations, as well as model simulations to assess wildfire carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon fluxes. Our focus was on examining the dynamics of vegetation and carbon flux…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Examining the influence of mid-tropospheric conditions and surface wind changes on extremely large fires and fire growth days
Year: 2023
Background: Previous work by the author and others has examined weather associated with growth of exceptionally large fires (‘Fires of Unusual Size’, or FOUS), looking at three of four factors associated with critical fire weather patterns: antecedent drying, high wind and low humidity. However, the authors did not examine atmospheric stability, the fourth factor. Aims: This study examined the relationships of mid-tropospheric stability and dryness used in the Haines Index, and changes in surface wind speed or direction, to growth of FOUS. Methods. Weather measures were paired with daily…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Lightning-Ignited Wildfires in the Western United States: Ignition Precipitation and Associated Environmental Conditions
Year: 2023
Cloud-to-ground lightning with minimal rainfall (“dry” lightning) is a major wildfire ignition source in the western United States (WUS). Although dry lightning is commonly defined as occurring with <2.5 mm of daily-accumulated precipitation, a rigorous quantification of precipitation amounts concurrent with lightning-ignited wildfires (LIWs) is lacking. We combine wildfire, lightning and precipitation data sets to quantify these ignition precipitation amounts across ecoprovinces of the WUS. The median precipitation for all LIWs is 2.8 mm but varies with vegetation and fire characteristics…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Patterns and drivers of early conifer regeneration following stand-replacing wildfire in Pacific Northwest (USA) temperate maritime forests
Year: 2023
Tree regeneration is a critical mechanism of forest resilience to stand-replacing wildfire (i.e., where fire results in >90 % tree mortality), and post-fire regeneration is a concern worldwide as the climate becomes warmer. Although post-fire tree regeneration has been relatively well-studied in fire-prone forests across western North America, it is less understood in fire regimes characterized by large patches of stand-replacing fire at long intervals, such as the nominally infrequent, high-severity fire regimes of the western Cascades of Washington and northern Oregon,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Satellite-derived prefire vegetation predicts variation in field-based invasive annual grass cover after fir
Year: 2023
AimsInvasion by annual grasses (IAGs) and concomitant increases in wildfire are impacting many drylands globally, and an understanding of factors that contribute to or detract from community resistance to IAGs is needed to inform postfire restoration interventions. Prefire vegetation condition is often unknown in rangelands but it likely affects variation in postfire invasion resistance across large burned scars. Whether satellite-derived products like the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) can fulfill prefire information needs and be used to parametrize models of fire recovery to inform…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020
Year: 2023
This study examined the hydrological/meteorological controls on large wildfires > 10,000 acres (40.5 km2) during 2017–2020 in Northern California at spatial and temporal scales of the target wildfires’ occurrence or growth. This study used the following simple indices for analysis: Moisture Deficit Index (MDI) computed by dividing vapor pressure deficit by soil moisture, MDIWIND computed by multiplying MDI by horizontal wind speed, and MDIGUST computed by multiplying MDI by wind gust speed. The ignition location MDIWIND and MDIGUST showed larger values on the ignition date in fire-years…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Landscape‑scale fuel treatment effectiveness: lessons learned from wildland fire case studies in forests of the western United States and Great Lakes region
Year: 2023
Background Maximizing the effectiveness of fuel treatments at landscape scales is a key research and management need given the inability to treat all areas at risk from wildfire. We synthesized information from case studies that documented the influence of fuel treatments on wildfire events. We used a systematic review to identify relevant case studies and extracted information through a series of targeted questions to summarize experiential knowledge of landscape fuel treatment effectiveness. Within a larger literature search, we identified 18 case study reports that included (1) manager…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Modification of Soil Hydroscopic and Chemical Properties Caused by Four Recent California, USA Megafires
Year: 2023
While it is well known that wildfires can greatly contribute to soil water repellency by changing soil chemical composition, the mechanisms of these changes are still poorly understood. In the past decade, the number, size, and intensity of wildfires have greatly increased in the western USA. Recent megafires in California (i.e., the Dixie, Beckwourth Complex, Caldor, and Mosquito fires) provided us with an opportunity to characterize pre- and post-fire soils and to study the effects of fires on soil water repellency, soil organic constituents, and connections between the two. Water drop…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Forecasting natural regeneration of sagebrush after wildfires using population models and spatial matching
Year: 2023
Context Addressing ecosystem degradation in the Anthropocene will require ecological restoration across large spatial extents. Identifying areas where natural regeneration will occur without direct resource investment will improve scalability of restoration actions. Objectives An ecoregion in need of large scale restoration is the Great Basin of the Western US, where increasingly large and frequent wildfires threaten ecosystem integrity and its foundational shrub species. We develop a framework to forecast where post-wildfire regeneration of sagebrush cover (Artemisia spp.) is likely to occur…
Publication Type: Journal Article