Research Database
Displaying 21 - 40 of 112
The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers
Year: 2024
Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global-scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year-to-year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Record-breaking fire weather in North America in 2021 was initiated by the Pacific northwest heat dome
Year: 2024
The 2021 North American wildfire season was marked by record breaking fire-conducive weather and widespread synchronous burning, extreme fire behaviour, smoke and evacuations. Relative to 1979–2021, the greatest number of temperature and vapor pressure deficit records were broken in 2021, and in July alone, 3.2 million hectares burned in Canada and the United States. These events were catalyzed by an intense heat dome that formed in late June over western North America that synchronized fire danger, challenging fire suppression efforts. Based on analysis of persistent positive anomalies of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Association of social vulnerability factors with power outage burden in Washington state: 2018–2021
Year: 2024
Major power outages have risen over the last two decades, largely due to more extreme weather conditions. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the distribution of power outages and its relationship to social vulnerability and co-occurring hazards. We examined the associations between localized outages and social vulnerability factors (demographic characteristics), controlling for environmental factors (weather), in Washington State between 2018–2021. We additionally analyzed the validity of PowerOutage.us data compared to federal datasets. The population included 27 counties served by 14…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Trends in prescribed fire weather windows from 2000 to 2022 in California
Year: 2024
As increasing wildfire activity puts pressure on wildland fire suppression resources both nationally and within the state of California, further development of programs and infrastructure that emphasize preventative fuels treatments, e.g. prescribed burning, is critical for mitigating the impacts of wildfire at large spatial scales. Among many factors that limit the use of prescribed fire, weather and fuel moisture conditions are among the most critical. We analyzed a 2-km gridded hourly surface weather dataset over a 23-yr period to explore the relationship between climatological trends and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Canada Under Fire – Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season
Year: 2024
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented in its scale and intensity. Spanning from late April to early November and extending across much of the forested regions of Canada, the season resulted in a record-breaking total area burned of approximately 15 million hectares, over seven times the historic national annual average. The impacts were profound with more than 200 communities evacuated (approximately 232,000 people), periods of dense smoke that caused significant public health concerns, and unprecedented demands on fire-fighting resources. The exceptional area burned can be…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Probabilistic Forecasting of Lightning Strikes over the Continental USA and Alaska: Model Development and Verification
Year: 2024
Lightning is responsible for the most area annually burned by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm running on a uniform 20 km grid over the continental USA and Alaska. This is the first and only high-resolution lightning forecasting model for North America derived from 29-year-long data records. The algorithm consists of a large…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Lightning-Ignited Wildfires in the Western United States: Ignition Precipitation and Associated Environmental Conditions
Year: 2023
Cloud-to-ground lightning with minimal rainfall (“dry” lightning) is a major wildfire ignition source in the western United States (WUS). Although dry lightning is commonly defined as occurring with <2.5 mm of daily-accumulated precipitation, a rigorous quantification of precipitation amounts concurrent with lightning-ignited wildfires (LIWs) is lacking. We combine wildfire, lightning and precipitation data sets to quantify these ignition precipitation amounts across ecoprovinces of the WUS. The median precipitation for all LIWs is 2.8 mm but varies with vegetation and fire characteristics…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The eco-evolutionary role of fire in shaping terrestrial ecosystems
Year: 2023
1. Fire is an inherently evolutionary process, even though much more emphasis has been given to ecological responses of plants and their associated communities to fire. 2. Here, we synthesize contributions to a Special Feature entitled ‘Fire as a dynamic ecological and evolutionary force’ and place them in a broader context of fire research. Topics covered in this Special Feature include a perspective on the im-pacts of novel fire regimes on differential forest mortality, discussions on new ap-proaches to investigate vegetation-fire feedbacks and resulting plant syndromes,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020
Year: 2023
This study examined the hydrological/meteorological controls on large wildfires > 10,000 acres (40.5 km2) during 2017–2020 in Northern California at spatial and temporal scales of the target wildfires’ occurrence or growth. This study used the following simple indices for analysis: Moisture Deficit Index (MDI) computed by dividing vapor pressure deficit by soil moisture, MDIWIND computed by multiplying MDI by horizontal wind speed, and MDIGUST computed by multiplying MDI by wind gust speed. The ignition location MDIWIND and MDIGUST showed larger values on the ignition date in fire-years…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Landscape‑scale fuel treatment effectiveness: lessons learned from wildland fire case studies in forests of the western United States and Great Lakes region
Year: 2023
Background Maximizing the effectiveness of fuel treatments at landscape scales is a key research and management need given the inability to treat all areas at risk from wildfire. We synthesized information from case studies that documented the influence of fuel treatments on wildfire events. We used a systematic review to identify relevant case studies and extracted information through a series of targeted questions to summarize experiential knowledge of landscape fuel treatment effectiveness. Within a larger literature search, we identified 18 case study reports that included (1) manager…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Making choices: prioritising the protection of biodiversity in wildfires
Year: 2023
Biodiversity is in chronic decline, and extreme events – such as wildfires – can add further episodes of acute losses. Fires of increasing magnitude will often overwhelm response capacity, and decision-makers need to make choices about what to protect. Conventionally, such choices prioritise human life then infrastructure then biodiversity. Based on shortcomings revealed in the 2019–20 Australian wildfires, we propose a series of linked steps that can be used to identify and prioritise biodiversity assets (including their priority relative to other types of assets), enhance and implement…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Fire-driven animal evolution in the Pyrocene
Year: 2023
Fire regimes are a major agent of evolution in terrestrial animals. Changing fire regimes and the capacity for rapid evolution in wild animal populations suggests the potential for rapid, fire-driven adaptive animal evolution in the Pyrocene. Fire drives multiple modes of evolutionary change, including stabilizing, directional, disruptive, and fluctuating selection, and can strongly influence gene flow and genetic drift. Ongoing and future research in fire-driven animal evolution will benefit from further development of generalizable hypotheses, studies conducted in highly responsive taxa,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires
Year: 2023
Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25% vs. 1.27%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10% less than the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Lizards' response to the sound of fire is modified by fire history
Year: 2023
Highlights • Lizards surviving wildfires are more alert to fire sound than those in unburned areas. • Lizards living in urban areas reacted to fire sound similarly to wildfire survivors. • Both natural and human-driven disturbances can shape the behaviour of animals. • Fires are likely to be an important selective pressure on animal behaviour. Many animals survive wildfires; however, the mechanisms used to detect and respond to fire have been poorly studied. Sensory cues like sight and sound are used to recognize threats (e.g. predators) and elicit escape responses in prey. Similarly, these…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A firebreak placement model for optimizing biodiversity protection at landscape scale
Year: 2023
A solution approach is proposed to optimize the selection of landscape cells for inclusion in firebreaks. It involves linking spatially explicit information on a landscape’s ecological values, historical ignition patterns and fire spread behavior. A firebreak placement optimization model is formulated that captures the tradeoff between the direct loss of biodiversity due to the elimination of vegetation in areas designated for placement of firebreaks and the protection provided by the firebreaks from losses due to future forest fires. The optimal solution generated by the model reduced…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Acorn woodpecker movements and social networks change with wildfire smoke
Year: 2023
Climate change has contributed to increased wildfires. Wildfire smoke exposes wildlife to hazards and mortality from particulate matter on a scale larger than the area impacted by fire. Using automated radiotelemetry, we illustrate how smoky conditions are associated with changes in behavior of acorn woodpeckers (Melanerpes formicivorus), a…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Contrasting effects of urbanization and fire on understory plant communities in the natural and wildland–urban interface
Year: 2023
As human populations expand and land-use change intensifies, terrestrial ecosystems experience concurrent disturbances (e.g., urbanization and fire) that may interact and compound their effects on biodiversity. In the urbanizing landscapes of the southern Appalachian region of the United States of America (US), fires in mesic forests have become more frequent in recent years. However, 80 years of forest management practices aimed at fire suppression in this region may have decreased landscape resistance or resilience to high-severity fires. At the same time, housing development is rapidly…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A roadmap for pyrodiversity science
Year: 2023
Background
Contemporary and projected shifts in global fire regimes highlight the importance of understanding how fire affects ecosystem function and biodiversity across taxa and geographies. Pyrodiversity, or heterogeneity in fire history, is often an important driver of biodiversity, though it has been largely overlooked until relatively recently. In this paper, we synthesise previous research to develop a theoretical framework on pyrodiversity–biodiversity relationships and propose future research and conservation management directions.
Theoretical Framework
Pyrodiversity may affect…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Smoke-weather interaction affects extreme wildfires in diverse coastal regions
Year: 2023
Extreme wildfires threaten human lives, air quality, and ecosystems. Meteorology plays a vital role in wildfire behaviors, and the links between wildfires and climate have been widely studied. However, it is not fully clear how fire-weather feedback affects short-term wildfire variability, which undermines our ability to mitigate fire disasters. Here, we show the primacy of synoptic- scale feedback in driving extreme fires in Mediterranean and monsoon climate regimes in the West Coast of the United States and Southeastern Asia. We found that radiative effects of smoke aerosols can modify near…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Examining the influence of mid-tropospheric conditions and surface wind changes on extremely large fires and fire growth days
Year: 2023
Background: Previous work by the author and others has examined weather associated with growth of exceptionally large fires (‘Fires of Unusual Size’, or FOUS), looking at three of four factors associated with critical fire weather patterns: antecedent drying, high wind and low humidity. However, the authors did not examine atmospheric stability, the fourth factor. Aims: This study examined the relationships of mid-tropospheric stability and dryness used in the Haines Index, and changes in surface wind speed or direction, to growth of FOUS. Methods. Weather measures were paired with daily…
Publication Type: Journal Article