Research Database
Displaying 241 - 260 of 275
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Forest Protection and Forest Harvest as Strategies for Ecological Sustainability and Climate Change Mitigation
Year: 2012
An important consideration in forest management to mitigate climate change is the balance between forest carbon (C) storage and ecological sustainability. We explore the effects of management strategies on tradeoffs between forest C stocks and ecological sustainability under five scenarios, three of which included management and two scenarios which provide baselines emulating the natural forest. Managed forest scenarios were: (a) Protection (PROT), i.e., management by suppression of natural disturbance and harvest exclusion; (b) Harvest at a higher rate removing all sustainably available wood…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Ecological effects of alternative fuel-reduction treatments: highlights of the National Fire and Fire Surrogate study (FSS)
Year: 2012
The 12-site National Fire and Fire Surrogate study (FFS) was a multivariate experiment that evaluated ecological consequences of alternative fuel-reduction treatments in seasonally dry forests of the US. Each site was a replicated experiment with a common design that compared an un-manipulated control, prescribed fire, mechanical and mechanical + fire treatments. Variables within the vegetation, fuelbed, forest floor and soil, bark beetles, tree diseases and wildlife were measured in 10-ha stands, and ecological response was compared among treatments at the site level, and across sites, to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges
Year: 2012
Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Temporal variability in California grasslands: Soil type and species functional traits mediate response to precipitation
Year: 2012
Plant communities on infertile soils may be relatively resistant to climatic variation if species in these communities have "stress-tolerant" functional traits that limit their ability to respond to climate. Alternatively, such communities may be more sensitive to climatic variation if their relatively sparse vegetative cover exposes species to more extreme changes in factors such as temperature or wind. We compared temporal variability in species richness and composition over 10 years between grasslands on infertile serpentine and "normal" sedimentary soils. Variability in species richness…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Ecological restoration using EBIPM
Year: 2012
When managing rangeland impacted by weeds, land managers often encounter plant communities where remnant desired vegetation is very scarce. When rangeland is this degraded, simply controlling weeds with the expectation that desired plants will be released from competition and return to dominate the site over time might not be adequate. Introducing propagules (i.e., seeds) of desired species through revegetation might be required. Ecologically Based Invasive Plant Management (EBIPM) serves as a decision-making framework for planning and implementing restoration and revegetation programs. This…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Does Wood Bioenergy Increase Carbon Stocks in Forests?
Year: 2012
Wood bioenergy is touted as carbon neutral because biological regrowth recaptures the carbon released in energy production. However, some argue that using wood as an energy feedstock will result in decreased forest stocks and thereby a net reduction of carbon sequestered by forests. Such arguments fail to recognize that increased demand for wood bioenergy could increase stocks of wood, a renewable resource. We address the carbon neutrality question using a dynamic optimization forest management model to examine the effect of increasing or decreasing wood bioenergy demand on an existing forest…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Decline of an Endangered Amphibian During an Extreme Climatic Event
Year: 2012
Climate change is a poorly understood, emerging threat to many amphibian species. One of the ways climate change is likely to affect amphibians is through increased recruitment failure associated with more frequent climatic extremes. To understand the risk posed by this threat, we combined 13 years of annual monitoring and multi-scaled habitat modelling at the site (n = 60), pool (n = 105) and nest (n = 170) levels to investigate the decline of the endangered northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi), during the most severe drought on record in southern Australia. We documented the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Placing Forestry in the Assisted Migration Debate
Year: 2012
Assisted migration (AM) is often presented as a strategy to save species that are imminently threatened by rapid climate change. This conception of AM, which has generated considerable controversy, typically proposes the movement of narrowly distributed, threatened species to suitable sites beyond their current range limits. However, existing North American forestry operations present an opportunity to practice AM on a larger scale, across millions of hectares, with a focus on moving populations of widely distributed, nonthreatened tree species within their current range limits. Despite these…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Review of Recent Advances in Risk Analysis for Wildfire Management
Year: 2012
Risk analysis evolved out of the need to make decisions concerning highly stochastic events, and is well suited to analyse the timing, location and potential effects of wildfires. Over the past 10 years, the application of risk analysis to wildland fire management has seen steady growth with new risk-based analytical tools that support a wide range of fire and fuels management planning scales from individual incidents to national, strategic interagency programs. After a brief review of the three components of fire risk – likelihood, intensity and effects – this paper reviews recent advances…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Eco-Evolutionary Responses of Biodiversity to Climate Change
Year: 2012
Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity, the distribution of human pathogens and ecosystem services. Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Comprehensive Guide to Fuel Management practices for Dry Mixed Conifer Forests in the Northwestern United States
Year: 2012
This guide describes the benefits, opportunities, and trade-offs concerning fuel treatments in the dry mixed conifer forests of northern California and the Klamath Mountains, Pacific Northwest Interior, northern and central Rocky Mountains, and Utah. Multiple interacting disturbances and diverse physical settings have created a forest mosaic with historically low- to mixed-severity fire regimes. Analysis of forest inventory data found nearly 80 percent of these forests rate hazardous by at least one measure and 20 to 30 percent rate hazardous by multiple measures. Modeled mechanical…
Publication Type: Report
The Effects of Forest Fuel-Reduction Treatments in the United States
Year: 2012
The current conditions of many seasonally dry forests in the western and southern United States, especially those that once experienced low- to moderate-intensity fire regimes, leave them uncharacteristically susceptible to high-severity wildfire. Both prescribed fire and its mechanical surrogates are generally successful in meeting short-term fuel-reduction objectives such that treated stands are more resilient to high-intensity wildfire. Most available evidence suggests that these objectives are typically accomplished with few unintended consequences, since most ecosystem components (…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Grass Seedling Demography and Sagebrush Steppe Restoration
Year: 2012
Seeding is a key management tool for arid rangeland. In these systems, however, seeded species often fail to establish. A recent study in Wyoming big sagebrush steppe suggested that over 90% of seeded native grass individuals die before seedlings emerged. This current study examines the timing and rate of seed germination, seedling emergence, and seedling death related to this demographic bottleneck. We seeded monocultures of two native perennial bunchgrasses, Pseudoroegenaria spicata (Pursh) Á. Löve and Elymus elymoides (Raf.) Swezey, and one introduced bunchgrass, Agropyron desertorum (…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Pole Creek Fire
Year: 2012
In September 9, 2012 a lightning strike hit the Pole Creek trailhead in the Deschutes National Forest, approximately 8 miles southwest of Sisters, Oregon. The wildfire was contained on October 17th after spreading over 26,000 acres of timber and brush. In response to this event, the Northwest Fire Science Consortium partnered with Oregon State University (OSU) College of Forestry, OSU Forestry & Natural Resources Extension, USFS Region 6, and the Central Oregon Fire Management Service to offer an opportunity for in-the-field learning in the immediate post-fire environment. Targeted…
Publication Type: Report
Projected range shifting by montane mammals under climate change: implications for Cascadia's National Parks
Year: 2012
We examined potential impacts of climate change over the next century on eight mammal species of conservation concern in western Washington State, under four warming scenarios. Using two species distribution models, including a logistic regression-based model and the "maximum entropy" (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the location and extent of the potential current and future range of each species based on a suite of environmental and geographical variables. Both models projected significant losses in range size within the focal area over the next century across all warming scenarios. Projections…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Building a Citizen-Agency Partnership Among Diverse Interests: The Colville National Forest and Northeast Washington Forestry Coalition Experience
Year: 2012
Concerns about forest health and the threat of wildfire across the Western United States increasingly provide the impetus for communities to find land management solutions that serve multiple interests. Funding and procedural changes over the past decade have positioned federal agencies to put greater emphasis on multistakeholder partnerships and public outreach efforts. Partnerships build slowly over time, but can result in a healthier resource, reduced fire risk, greater stability for agency planning processes, and more resilient communities. Drawing on interviews with stakeholders…
Publication Type: Report
Impediments to prescribed fire across agency, landscape and manager: an example from northern California
Year: 2012
Though the need for prescribed fire is widely recognised, its use remains subject to a range of operational and social constraints. Research has focussed on identifying these constraints, yet past efforts have focussed disproportionately on single agencies and geographic regions. We examined constraints on prescribed fire by surveying a wide variety of organisations (including six state and federal agencies and several tribes, non-governmental organisations and timber companies) in northern California, a fire-prone region of the western United States. Across the region, prescribed burning…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Importance of Framing for Communicating Risk and Managing Forest Health
Year: 2012
Despite the importance of effective communication about forest and fuel management, little is known about how best to frame information to facilitate public understanding and increase support. The results presented here indicate that framing a fuel management plan as necessary to restore "lost" forest health (as opposed to maintaining or improving forest health) will increase the willingness of individuals to support options that pose some likelihood of failure (i.e. risk). Strategic framing of communication for public audiences is necessary because of the common biases in judgment that can…
Publication Type: Journal Article