Research Database
Displaying 181 - 200 of 200
Climate Change and Disruptions to Global Fire Activity
Year: 2012
Future disruptions to fire activity will threaten ecosystems and human well-being throughout the world, yet there are few fire projections at global scales and almost none from a broad range of global climate models (GCMs). Here we integrate global fire datasets and environmental covariates to build spatial statistical models of fire probability at a 0.58 resolution and examine environmental controls on fire activity. Fire models are driven by climate norms from 16 GCMs (A2 emissions scenario) to assess the magnitude and direction of change over two time periods, 2010–2039 and 2070–2099. From…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The Use of Seedbed Modifications and Wood Chips to Accelerate Restoration of Well Pad Sites in Western Colorado, USA
Year: 2012
Semiarid ecosystems of Western North America are experiencing a boom in natural gas development. However, these systems are slow to recover from the disturbances created. The purpose of this study was to develop improved restoration techniques on natural gas well pads in Western Colorado. This study examined effects and interactions of seedbed modifications, soil amendments, seed mixtures, and seeding methods. The experiment was conducted in pinyon-juniper and semidesert shrub plant communities on five natural gas well pads beginning in 2006. Soil and plant cover data were collected to assess…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A Comprehensive Guide to Fuel Management Practices for Dry Mixed Conifer Forests in the Northwestern United States
Year: 2012
This guide describes the benefits, opportunities, and trade-offs concerning fuel treatments in the dry mixed conifer forests of northern California and the Klamath Mountains, Pacific Northwest Interior, northern and central Rocky Mountains, and Utah. Multiple interacting disturbances and diverse physical settings have created a forest mosaic with historically low- to mixed-severity fire regimes. Analysis of forest inventory data found nearly 80 percent of these forests rate hazardous by at least one measure and 20 to 30 percent rate hazardous by multiple measures. Modeled mechanical…
Publication Type: Report
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Grass Seedling Demography and Sagebrush Steppe Restoration
Year: 2012
Seeding is a key management tool for arid rangeland. In these systems, however, seeded species often fail to establish. A recent study in Wyoming big sagebrush steppe suggested that over 90% of seeded native grass individuals die before seedlings emerged. This current study examines the timing and rate of seed germination, seedling emergence, and seedling death related to this demographic bottleneck. We seeded monocultures of two native perennial bunchgrasses, Pseudoroegenaria spicata (Pursh) Á. Löve and Elymus elymoides (Raf.) Swezey, and one introduced bunchgrass, Agropyron desertorum (…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Spatio-temporal prediction of site index based on forest inventories and climate change scenarios
Year: 2012
A methodological framework is provided for the quantification of climate change effects on site index. Spatio-temporal predictions of site index are derived for six major tree species in the German state of Baden-Württemberg using simplified universal kriging (UK) based on large data sets from forest inventories and a climate sensitive site-index model. It is shown by a simulation study that, with the underlying large sample size, residual kriging using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of the mean function leads to an approximately unbiased spatial predictor. Moreover, the simulated…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Photo Series for Quantifying Natural Fuels Volume XI : Eastern Oregon Sagebrush - Steppe and Spotted Owl Nesting Habitat in the Pacific Northwest
Year: 2012
Three series of photographs display a range of natural conditions and fuel loadings for sagebrush-steppe types that are ecotonal with grasses, western juniper, and ponderosa pine in eastern Oregon, and one series of photographs displays a range of natural conditions and fuel loadings for northern spotted owl nesting habitat in forest types in Washington and Oregon. Each group of photos includes inventory information summarizing vegetation composition, structure, and loading; woody material loading and density by size class; forest floor depth and loading; and various site characteristics. The…
Publication Type: Report
Northwest Forest Plan -- The First 15 Years: Status and Trends of Northern Spotted Owl Populations and Habitats
Year: 2011
This is the second in a series of periodic monitoring reports on northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat trends on federally administered lands since implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994.Here we summarize results from a population analysis that included data from long-term demographic studies during 1985–2008. This data was analyzed separately by study area, and also in a meta-analysis across all study areas to assess temporal and spatial patterns in fecundity, apparent survival, recruitment, and annual rates of population change. Estimated…
Publication Type: Report
Effectiveness of post-fire seeding at the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve, Washington
Year: 2011
In August 2007, the Milepost 17 and Wautoma fires burned a combined total of 77,349 acres (31,302 hectares) of the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Land Ecology Reserve (ALE), part of the Hanford Reach National Monument administered by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) Mid-Columbia National Wildlife Refuge. In 2008, the USFWS implemented a series of seeding and herbicide treatments to mitigate potential negative consequences of these fires, including mortality of native vegetation, invasion of Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass), and soil erosion. Treatments included combinations of seeding (drill…
Publication Type: Report
Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Year: 2011
In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both fire likelihood and intensity influence risk to social, economic, and ecological values at regional and national scales. Three main components are required to generate wildfire risk outputs: (1) burn probability maps generated from…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Simulating fuel treatment effects in dry forests of the western United States: testing the principles of a fire-safe forest
Year: 2011
We used the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) to simulate fuel treatment effects on 45 1 62 stands in low- to midelevation dry forests (e.g., ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Doug!. ex. P. & C. Laws.) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) of the western United States. We evaluated treatment effects on predicted post-treatment fire behavior (fire type) and fire hazard (torching index). FFE-FVS predicts that thinning and surface fuel treatments reduced crown fire behavior relative to no treatment; a large proportion of stands were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildfire Risk Management on a Landscape with Public and Private Ownership: Who Pays for Protection?
Year: 2010
Wildfire, like many natural hazards, affects large landscapes with many landowners and the risk individual owners face depends on both individual and collective protective actions. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit game theoretic model to examine the strategic interaction between landowners’ hazard mitigation decisions on a landscape with public and private ownership. We find that in areas where ownership is mixed, the private landowner performs too little fuel treatment as they ‘‘free ride’’—capture benefits without incurring the costs—on public protection, while areas with…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Introducing FuelCalc: A New Tool that Helps Turn Static Inventory Data into Actionable Information
Year: 2010
Fuel and fire managers perform fuel treatments to manage and restore ecosystems and protect resources. In order to plan effective fuel treatments that accomplish objectives, managers need to analyze fuel conditions and document the expected fire behavior and fire effects both before and after fuel treatment. To help accomplish these goals, a new software tool named FuelCalc was created. FuelCalc facilitates use of a wide range of inventory data and fuel characteristics to help calculate fuel quantities and qualities to estimate potential fire behavior, fire effects, and smoke production. By…
Publication Type: Report
ArcFuels: Integrating Wildfire Models and Risk Analysis into Landscape Fuels Management
Year: 2009
That risk from wildfire continues to grow across the United States is not a new problem. Managing forest fuels in the real world—such as thinning and burning prescriptively—to reduce fuel loads have been used effectively to reduce the risk of severe wildfire. These actions have been helped by a variety of software tools that assist managers in planning and evaluating fuel treatments to ensure they are cost effective in terms of impeding the growth of future large, severe wildfires. While many landscape planning tools do a fine job within the scope of their capabilities, the process of fine…
Publication Type: Report
The evaluation of meta-analysis techniques for quantifying prescribed fire effects on fuel loadings
Year: 2009
Models and effect-size metrics for meta-analysis were compared in four separate meta-analyses quantifying surface fuels after prescribed fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) forests of the Western United States. An aggregated data set was compiled from 8 published reports that contained data from 65 fire treatment units. Downed woody and organic fuels were partitioned into five classes, and four meta-analyses were performed on each in a 2 by 2 factorial combination of fixed-effects vs. mixed-effects models with a difference-based metric (Hedges’ d) vs. a ratio-based…
Publication Type: Report
FOFEM: The First-Order Fire Effects Model Adapts to the 21st Century
Year: 2009
Technology is playing an increasingly pivotal role in the efficiency and effectiveness of fire management. The First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) is a widely used computer application that predicts the immediate or ‘first-order’ effects of fire: fuel consumption, tree mortality, emissions, and soil heating. FOFEM’s simple operation and comprehensive features have made it a workhorse for fire and resource professionals who need to be able to predict, assess and plan for fire’s effects. Over the last decade FOFEM has undergone several upgrades as developers continue to improve function and…
Publication Type: Report
Consume 3.0 -- A Software Tool for Computing Fuel Consumption
Year: 2009
Knowing when, where and how fire should be applied is critical for land managers planning to use fire prescriptively for land management goals, or allowing fires ignited naturally to burn. Myriad variables need to be taken into consideration to determine how fire will consume different fuels. Consume, version 3.0 is a user-friendly software that incorporates the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) to predict fuel consumption, pollutant emissions, and heat release. A flexible tool, Consume 3.0 makes these calculations based on fuel loadings, fuel moisture and other environmental…
Publication Type: Report
Assessing fuel treatment effectiveness using satellite imagery and spatial statistics
Year: 2009
Understanding the influences of forest management practices on wildfire severity is critical in fire-prone ecosystems of the western United States. Newly available geospatial data sets characterizing vegetation, fuels, topography, and burn severity offer new opportunities for studying fuel treatment effectiveness at regional to national scales. In this study, we used ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression and sequential autoregression (SAR) to analyze fuel treatment effects on burn severity for three recent wildfires: the Camp 32 fire in western Montana, the School fire in southeastern…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Behavior Modification: Tempering Fire at the Landscape Level
Year: 2008
With a history of management choices that have suppressed fire in the West, ecosystems in which fire would play a vital role have developed tremendous fuel loads. As a result, conditions are prime for fires to grow large, escape attack measures, and become catastrophic conflagrations that damage watersheds, forest resources, and homes. With a quiver of treatment options, land managers have successfully used prescribed burning and thinning to modify landscapes at the stand level. But planning treatments to modify fuel build up on a patch of forest is vastly different than planning treatments…
Publication Type: Report
Wildlife and invertebrate response to fuel reduction treatments in dry coniferous forests of western US
Year: 2006
This paper synthesizes available information on the effects of hazardous fuel reduction treatments on terrestrial wildlife and invertebrates in dry coniferous forest types in the West. We focused on thinning and/or prescribed fire studies in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and dry-type Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii ), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), and mixed coniferous forests. Overall, there are tremendous gaps in information needed to evaluate the effects of fuel reduction on the majority of species found in our focal area. Differences among studies in location, fuel treatment type…
Publication Type: Report