Research Database
Displaying 81 - 100 of 287
Exploring and Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making in the Face of Deep Uncertainty
Year: 2023
We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Effects of nurse shrubs and biochar on planted conifer seedling survival and growth in a high-severity burn patch in New Mexico, USA
Year: 2023
The synergistic effects of widespread high-severity wildfire and anthropogenic climate change are driving large-scale vegetation conversion. In the southwestern United States, areas that were once dominated by conifer forests are now shrub- or grasslands after high-severity wildfire, an ecosystem conversion that could be permanent without human intervention. Yet, the reforestation of these landscapes is rarely successful, with a mean planted seedling survival of just 25 %. Given these low rates, we carried out a planting experiment to quantify the impacts of biochar as a soil amendment and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Performance of Fire Danger Indices and Their Utility in Predicting Future Wildfire Danger Over the Conterminous United States
Year: 2023
Predicting current and future wildfire frequency and size is central to wildfire control and management. Multiple fire danger indices (FDIs) that incorporate weather and fuel conditions have been developed and utilized to support wildfire predictions and risk assessment. However, the scale-dependent performance of individual FDIs remains poorly understood, which leads to large uncertainty in the estimated fire sizes under climate change. Here, we calculate four commonly used FDIs over the conterminous United States using high-resolution (4 km) climate and fuel data sets for the 1984–2019…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Predicting snag fall in an old-growth forest after fire
Year: 2023
Snags, standing dead trees, are becoming more abundant in forests as tree mortality rates continue to increase due to fire, drought, and bark beetles. Snags provide habitat for birds and small mammals, and when they fall to the ground, the resulting logs provide additional wildlife habitat and affect nutrient cycling, fuel loads, and fire behavior. Predicting how long snags will remain standing after fire is essential for managing habitat, understanding chemical cycling in forests, and modeling forest succession and fuels. Few studies, however, have quantified how fire changes snag fall…
Publication Type: Journal Article
DUET - Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport: A mechanistic model of leaf litter and herbaceous spatial distribution based on tree canopy structure
Year: 2023
Heterogeneity in surface fuels produced by overstory trees and understory vegetation is a major driver of fire behavior and ecosystem dynamics. Previous attempts at predicting tree leaf and needle litter accumulation over time have been constrained in scope to probabilistic models that consider a limited number of key factors influencing tree litter dispersal patterns and decomposition processes. We present a mechanistic model for estimating variation in surface fuels called the Distribution of Understory using Elliptical Transport (DUET). DUET uses a pre-generated voxelated canopy array and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
High-severity fire drives persistent floristic homogenization in human-altered forests
Year: 2023
Ecological disturbance regimes across the globe are being altered via direct and indirect human influences. Biodiversity loss at multiple scales can be a direct outcome of these shifts. Fire, especially in dry forests, is an ecological disturbance that is experiencing dramatic changes due to climate change, fire suppression, increased human population in fire-prone areas, and alterations to vegetation composition and structure. Dry western conifer forests that historically experienced frequent, low-severity fires are now increasingly burning at high severity. Relatively little work has been…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Spatial interactions among short-interval fires reshape forest landscapes
Year: 2023
Aim Ecological disturbances are increasing as climate warms, and how multiple disturbances interact spatially to drive landscape change is poorly understood. We quantified burn severity across fire regimes in reburned forest landscapes to ask how spatial patterns of high-severity fire differ between sequential overlapping fires and how landscape heterogeneity is shaped by cumulative disturbance patterns. We also characterized the amount and configuration of an emerging phenomenon: areas burned as high-severity fire twice in successive fires. Location Northwest USA. Time period 1984–2020.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Too hot, too cold, or just right: Can wildfire restore dry forests of the interior Pacific Northwest?
Year: 2023
As contemporary wildfire activity intensifies across the western United States, there is increasing recognition that a variety of forest management activities are necessary to restore ecosystem function and reduce wildfire hazard in dry forests. However, the pace and scale of current, active forest management is insufficient to address restoration needs. Managed wildfire and landscape-scale prescribed burns hold potential to achieve broad-scale goals but may not achieve desired outcomes where fire severity is too high or too low. To explore the potential for fire alone to restore dry forests…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Incorporating pyrodiversity into wildlife habitat assessments for rapid post-fire management: A woodpecker case study
Year: 2023
Spatial and temporal variation in fire characteristics—termed pyrodiversity—areincreasingly recognized as important factors that structure wildlife communitiesin fire-prone ecosystems, yet there have been few attempts to incorporatepyrodiversity or post-fire habitat dynamics into predictive models of animaldistributionsandabundancetosupportpost-firemanagement.Weusetheblack-backed woodpecker—a species associated with burned forests—as a case study todemonstrate a pathway for incorporating pyrodiversity into wildlife habitatassessments for adaptive management. Employing monitoring data (2009–…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Modeling Wildland Firefighters’ Assessments of Structure Defensibility
Year: 2023
In wildland–urban interface areas, firefighters balance wildfire suppression and structure protection. These tasks are often performed under resource limitations, especially when many structures are at risk. To address this problem, wildland firefighters employ a process called “structure triage” to prioritize structure protection based on perceived defensibility. Using a dataset containing triage assessments of thousands of structures within the Western US, we developed a machine learning model that can improve the understanding of factors contributing to assessed structure defensibility.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States
Year: 2023
Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of chang-ing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Proportion of forest area burned at high-severity increases with increasing forest cover and connectivity in western US watersheds
Year: 2023
Context In western US forests, the increasing frequency of large high-severity fires presents challenges for society. Quantifying how fuel conditions influence high-severity area is important for managing risks of large high-severity fires and understanding how they are changing with climate change. Fuel availability and heterogeneity influence high-severity fire probability, but heterogeneity is insensitive to some aspects of forest connectivity that are important to potential high-severity fire transmission and thus high-severity area. Objectives To quantify the effects of fuel availability…
Publication Type: Journal Article
A comparison of smoke modelling tools used to mitigate air quality impacts from prescribed burning
Year: 2023
Background. Prescribed fire is a land management tool used extensively across the United States. Owing to health and safety risks, smoke emitted by burns requires appropriate manage- ment. Smoke modelling tools are often used to mitigate air pollution impacts. However, direct comparisons of tools’ predictions are lacking. Aims. We compared three tools commonly used to plan prescribed burning projects: the Simple Smoke Screening Tool, VSmoke and HYSPLIT. Methods. We used each tool to model smoke dispersion from prescribed burns conducted by the North Carolina Division of Parks and Recreation…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Atmospheric turbulence and wildland fires: a review
Year: 2023
The behaviour of wildland fires and the dispersion of smoke from those fires can be strongly influenced by atmospheric turbulent flow. The science to support that assertion has developed and evolved over the past 100+ years, with contributions from laboratory and field observations, as well as modelling experiments. This paper provides a synthesis of the key laboratory- and field-based observational studies focused on wildland fire and atmospheric turbulence connections that have been conducted from the early 1900s through 2021. Included in the synthesis are reports of anecdotal…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Less fuel for the next fire? Short-interval fire delays forest recovery and interacting drivers amplify effects
Year: 2023
As 21st-century climate and disturbance dynamics depart from historic baselines, ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Multiple drivers are changing simultaneously, and interactions among drivers could amplify ecosystem vulnerability to change. Subalpine forests in Greater Yellowstone (Northern Rocky Mountains, USA) were historically resilient to infrequent (100–300 year), severe fire. We sampled paired short-interval (<30-year) and long-interval (>125-year) post-fire plots most recently burned between 1988 and 2018 to address two questions: (1) How do short-interval fire, climate,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Higher burn severity stimulates postfire vegetation and carbon recovery in California
Year: 2023
As the climate continues to warm, the severity of wildfires is increasing. However, the potential impact of higher burn severity on ecosystem resilience and regional carbon balance is still not clear. There are ongoing debates regarding whether increased burn severity stimulates or delays postfire vegetation and carbon recovery. In this study, we utilized remote sensing data to analyze burn severity and vegetation observations, as well as model simulations to assess wildfire carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon fluxes. Our focus was on examining the dynamics of vegetation and carbon flux…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Optimizing the implementation of a forest fuel break network
Year: 2023
Methods and models to design, prioritize and evaluate fuel break networks have potential application in many fire-prone ecosystems where major increases in fuel management investments are planned in response to growing incidence of wildfires. A key question facing managers is how to scale treatments into manageable project areas that meet operational and administrative constraints, and then prioritize their implementation over time to maximize fire management outcomes. We developed and tested a spatial modeling system to optimize the implementation of a proposed 3,538 km fuel break network…
Economic Impacts of Fire, Fuels and Fuel Treatments, Risk Assessment and Analysis, Social and Community Impacts of Fire
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using soil moisture information to better understand and predict wildfire danger: a review of recent developments and outstanding questions
Year: 2023
Soil moisture conditions are represented in fire danger rating systems mainly through simple drought indices based on meteorological variables, even though better sources of soil moisture information are increasingly available. This review summarises a growing body of evidence indicating that greater use of in situ, remotely sensed, and modelled soil moisture information in fire danger rating systems could lead to better estimates of dynamic live and dead herbaceous fuel loads, more accurate live and dead fuel moisture predictions, earlier warning of wildfire danger, and better forecasts of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Heading and backing fire behaviours mediate the influence of fuels on wildfire energy
Year: 2023
Background: Pre-fire fuels, topography, and weather influence wildfire behaviour and fire-driven ecosystem carbon loss. However, the pre-fire characteristics that contribute to fire behaviour and effects are often understudied for wildfires because measurements are difficult to obtain. Aims: This study aimed to investigate the relative contribution of pre-fire conditions to fire energy and the role of fire advancement direction in fuel consumption. Methods: Over 15 years, we measured vegetation and fuels in California mixed-conifer forests within days before and after wildfires, with co-…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Different approaches make comparing studies of burn severity challenging: a review of methods used to link remotely sensed data with the Composite Burn Index
Year: 2023
The Composite Burn Index (CBI) is commonly linked to remotely sensed data to understand spatial and temporal patterns of burn severity. However, a comprehensive understanding of the tradeoffs between different methods used to model CBI with remotely sensed data is lacking. To help understand the current state of the science, provide a blueprint towards conducting broad- scale meta-analyses, and identify key decision points and potential rationale, we conducted a review of studies that linked remotely sensed data to continuous estimates of burn severity measured with the CBI and related…
Publication Type: Journal Article