Research Database
Displaying 21 - 40 of 89
Hydrometeorology-wildfire relationship analysis based on a wildfire bivariate probabilistic framework in different ecoregions of the continental United States
Year: 2024
Wildfires are a natural part of the ecosystem in the U.S.. It is vital to classify wildfires using a comprehensive approach that simultaneously considers wildfire activity (the number of wildfires) and burned area. On this basis, the influence of hydrometeorological variables on wildfires can be further analyzed. Therefore, this study first classified wildfire types using a wildfire bivariate probability framework. Then, by considering six hydrometeorological variables, the dominant hydrometeorological variables for different wildfire types in 17 ecoregions of the United States were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Repeated fuel treatments fall short of fire-adapted regeneration objectives in a Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest, USA
Year: 2024
Fire exclusion over the last two centuries has driven a significant fire deficit in the forests of western North America, leading to widespread changes in the composition and structure of these historically fire-adapted ecosystems. Fuel treatments have been increasingly applied over the last few decades to mitigate fire hazard, yet it is unclear whether these fuel-focused treatments restore the fire-adapted conditions and species that will allow forests to persist into the future. A vital prerequisite of restoring fire-adaptedness is ongoing establishment of fire-tolerant tree species, and…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Comparing ground-based lightning detection networks near wildfire points-of-origin
Year: 2024
Lightning detection and attribution to wildfire ignitions is a critical component of fire management worldwide to both reduce hazards of wildfire to values-at-risk and to enhance the potential for wildland fire to provide resource benefits in fire-adapted ecosystems. We compared two operational ground-based lightning detection networks used by fire managers to identify cloud-to-ground strokes within operationally-relevant distances (1.6 km) of the origins of 4408 western United States lightning-ignited wildfires spanning May–September 2020. Applying two sets of constraints–varying…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Moderating effects of past wildfire on reburn severity depend on climate and initial severity in Western US forests
Year: 2024
Rising global fire activity is increasing the prevalence of repeated short-interval burning (reburning) in forests worldwide. In forests that historically experienced frequent-fire regimes, high-severity fire exacerbates the severity of subsequent fires by increasing prevalence of shrubs and/or by creating drier understory conditions. Low- to moderate-severity fire, in contrast, can moderate future fire behavior by reducing fuel loads. The extent to which previous fires moderate future fire severity will powerfully affect fire-prone forest ecosystem trajectories over the next century. Further…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Montane springs provide regeneration refugia after high-severity wildfire
Year: 2024
In the mountainous regions of the Western United States, increasing wildfire activity and climate change are putting forests at risk of regeneration failure and conversion to non-forests. During periods with unfavorable climatic conditions, locations that are suitable for post-fire tree regeneration (regeneration refugia) may be essential for forest recovery. These refugia could provide scattered islands of recovering forest from which broader forest recovery may be facilitated. Spring ecosystems provide cool and wet microsites relative to the surrounding landscape and may act as regeneration…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Near-term fire weather forecasting in the Pacific Northwest using 500-hPa map types
Year: 2024
BackgroundNear-term forecasts of fire danger based on predicted surface weather and fuel dryness are widely used to support the decisions of wildfire managers. The incorporation of synoptic-scale upper-air patterns into predictive models may provide additional value in operational forecasting.AimsIn this study, we assess the impact of synoptic-scale upper-air patterns on the occurrence of large wildfires and widespread fire outbreaks in the US Pacific Northwest. Additionally, we examine how discrete upper-air map types can augment subregional models of…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Human driven climate change increased the likelihood of the 2023 record area burned in Canada
Year: 2024
In 2023, wildfires burned 15 million hectares in Canada, more than doubling the previous record. These wildfires caused a record number of evacuations, unprecedented air quality impacts across Canada and the northeastern United States, and substantial strain on fire management resources. Using climate models, we show that human-induced climate change significantly increased the likelihood of area burned at least as large as in 2023 across most of Canada, with more than two-fold increases in the east and southwest. The long fire season was more than five times as likely and the large areas…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Thinning and prescribed burning increase shade-tolerant conifer regeneration in a fire excluded mixed-conifer forest
Year: 2024
Fire exclusion and past management have altered the composition, structure, and function of frequent-fire forests throughout western North America. In mixed-conifer forests of the California Sierra Nevada, fire exclusion has exacerbated the effects of drought and endemic bark beetles, resulting in extensive mortality of fire-adapted pine species. Thinning and prescribed fire are widely used in these forests to reduce fuels, moderate fire behavior, and restore ecosystems. Tree regeneration influences future forest composition and structure, and therefore future resilience to disturbances, but…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Forest thinning and prescribed burning treatments reduce wildfire severity and buffer the impacts of severe fire weather
Year: 2024
BackgroundThe capacity of forest fuel treatments to moderate the behavior and severity of subsequent wildfires depends on weather and fuel conditions at the time of burning. However, in-depth evaluations of how treatments perform are limited because encounters between wildfires and areas with extensive pre-fire data are rare. Here, we took advantage of a 1200-ha randomized and replicated experiment that burned almost entirely in a subsequent wildfire under a wide range of weather conditions. We compared the impacts of four fuel treatments on fire severity, including two thin-only, a thin-burn…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate and fire impacts on tree recruitment in mixed conifer forests in Northwestern Mexico and California
Year: 2023
Frequent-fire forests were once heterogeneous at multiple spatial scales, which contributed to their resilience to severe fire. While many studies have characterized historical spatial patterns in frequent-fire forests, fewer studies have investigated their temporal dynamics. We investigated the influences of fire and climate on the timing of conifer recruitment in old-growth Jeffrey pine-mixed conifer forests in the Sierra San Pedro Martir (SSPM) and the eastern slope of Sierra Nevada. Additionally, we evaluated the impacts of fire exclusion and recent climate change on recruitment levels…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Ability of seedlings to survive heat and drought portends future demographic challenges for five southwestern US conifers
Year: 2023
Climate change and disturbance are altering forests and the rates and locations of tree regeneration. In semi-arid forests of the southwestern USA, limitations imposed by hot and dry conditions are likely to influence seedling survival. We examined how the survival of 1-year seedlings of five southwestern US conifer species whose southwestern distributions range from warmer and drier woodlands and forests (Pinus edulis Engelm., Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex C. Lawson) to cooler and wetter subalpine forests (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco, Abies concolor…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Forecasting natural regeneration of sagebrush after wildfires using population models and spatial matching
Year: 2023
Context Addressing ecosystem degradation in the Anthropocene will require ecological restoration across large spatial extents. Identifying areas where natural regeneration will occur without direct resource investment will improve scalability of restoration actions. Objectives An ecoregion in need of large scale restoration is the Great Basin of the Western US, where increasingly large and frequent wildfires threaten ecosystem integrity and its foundational shrub species. We develop a framework to forecast where post-wildfire regeneration of sagebrush cover (Artemisia spp.) is likely to occur…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Examining the influence of mid-tropospheric conditions and surface wind changes on extremely large fires and fire growth days
Year: 2023
Background: Previous work by the author and others has examined weather associated with growth of exceptionally large fires (‘Fires of Unusual Size’, or FOUS), looking at three of four factors associated with critical fire weather patterns: antecedent drying, high wind and low humidity. However, the authors did not examine atmospheric stability, the fourth factor. Aims: This study examined the relationships of mid-tropospheric stability and dryness used in the Haines Index, and changes in surface wind speed or direction, to growth of FOUS. Methods. Weather measures were paired with daily…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Topographic information improves simulated patterns of post-fire conifer regeneration in the southwest United States
Year: 2023
The western United States is projected to experience more frequent and severe wildfires in the future due to drier and hotter climate conditions, exacerbating destructive wildfire impacts on forest ecosystems such as tree mortality and unsuccessful post-fire regeneration. While empirical studies have revealed strong relationships between topographical information and plant regeneration, ecological processes in ecosystem models have either not fully addressed topography-mediated effects on the probability of plant regeneration, or the probability is only controlled by climate-related factors,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Lightning-Ignited Wildfires in the Western United States: Ignition Precipitation and Associated Environmental Conditions
Year: 2023
Cloud-to-ground lightning with minimal rainfall (“dry” lightning) is a major wildfire ignition source in the western United States (WUS). Although dry lightning is commonly defined as occurring with <2.5 mm of daily-accumulated precipitation, a rigorous quantification of precipitation amounts concurrent with lightning-ignited wildfires (LIWs) is lacking. We combine wildfire, lightning and precipitation data sets to quantify these ignition precipitation amounts across ecoprovinces of the WUS. The median precipitation for all LIWs is 2.8 mm but varies with vegetation and fire characteristics…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Less fuel for the next fire? Short-interval fire delays forest recovery and interacting drivers amplify effects
Year: 2023
As 21st-century climate and disturbance dynamics depart from historic baselines, ecosystem resilience is uncertain. Multiple drivers are changing simultaneously, and interactions among drivers could amplify ecosystem vulnerability to change. Subalpine forests in Greater Yellowstone (Northern Rocky Mountains, USA) were historically resilient to infrequent (100–300 year), severe fire. We sampled paired short-interval (<30-year) and long-interval (>125-year) post-fire plots most recently burned between 1988 and 2018 to address two questions: (1) How do short-interval fire, climate,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Hydrological and Meteorological Controls on Large Wildfire Ignition and Burned Area in Northern California during 2017–2020
Year: 2023
This study examined the hydrological/meteorological controls on large wildfires > 10,000 acres (40.5 km2) during 2017–2020 in Northern California at spatial and temporal scales of the target wildfires’ occurrence or growth. This study used the following simple indices for analysis: Moisture Deficit Index (MDI) computed by dividing vapor pressure deficit by soil moisture, MDIWIND computed by multiplying MDI by horizontal wind speed, and MDIGUST computed by multiplying MDI by wind gust speed. The ignition location MDIWIND and MDIGUST showed larger values on the ignition date in fire-years…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Landscape‑scale fuel treatment effectiveness: lessons learned from wildland fire case studies in forests of the western United States and Great Lakes region
Year: 2023
Background Maximizing the effectiveness of fuel treatments at landscape scales is a key research and management need given the inability to treat all areas at risk from wildfire. We synthesized information from case studies that documented the influence of fuel treatments on wildfire events. We used a systematic review to identify relevant case studies and extracted information through a series of targeted questions to summarize experiential knowledge of landscape fuel treatment effectiveness. Within a larger literature search, we identified 18 case study reports that included (1) manager…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Patterns and drivers of early conifer regeneration following stand-replacing wildfire in Pacific Northwest (USA) temperate maritime forests
Year: 2023
Tree regeneration is a critical mechanism of forest resilience to stand-replacing wildfire (i.e., where fire results in >90 % tree mortality), and post-fire regeneration is a concern worldwide as the climate becomes warmer. Although post-fire tree regeneration has been relatively well-studied in fire-prone forests across western North America, it is less understood in fire regimes characterized by large patches of stand-replacing fire at long intervals, such as the nominally infrequent, high-severity fire regimes of the western Cascades of Washington and northern Oregon,…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Smoke-weather interaction affects extreme wildfires in diverse coastal regions
Year: 2023
Extreme wildfires threaten human lives, air quality, and ecosystems. Meteorology plays a vital role in wildfire behaviors, and the links between wildfires and climate have been widely studied. However, it is not fully clear how fire-weather feedback affects short-term wildfire variability, which undermines our ability to mitigate fire disasters. Here, we show the primacy of synoptic- scale feedback in driving extreme fires in Mediterranean and monsoon climate regimes in the West Coast of the United States and Southeastern Asia. We found that radiative effects of smoke aerosols can modify near…
Publication Type: Journal Article