Research Database
Displaying 1 - 17 of 17
Development of Risk Matrices for Evaluating Climatic Change Responses of Forested Habitats
Year: 2012
We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate change. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or impact of that event. In the context of species habitats, the likelihood component is related to the potential changes in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions
Year: 2012
Conservation science strives to inform management decisions. Applying niche models in concert with future climate projections to project species vulnerability to extinction, range size loss, or distribution shifts has emerged as a potentially useful tool for informing resource management decisions. Making climate change niche modeling useful to conservation decisions requires centering studies on the types of decisions that are made regarding the focal taxa of a niche model study. Recent recommendations for climate adaptation strategies suggest four types of decision makers: policy, habitat…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Living with Wildfire: The State of Practice in Western Communities
Year: 2012
On the order of Congress, the federal land and fire management agencies are collaboratively developing a “National Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy” (Cohesive Strategy). In order to integrate the experience and insights of community stakeholders working on fire management issues in the west, leaders responsible for the Western Region Cohesive Strategy needed a strong understanding of current trends, needs and opportunities. This assessment was designed to provide that information and is intended to inform strategies, policies and programs emerging through the Cohesive Strategy and in…
Publication Type: Report
Is Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change Necessary in Grazed Rangelands?
Year: 2012
In this article we test the notion that adaptation to climate change in grazed rangelands requires little more effort than current approaches to risk management because the inherent climate variability that characterizes rangelands provides a management environment that is preadapted to climate change. We also examine the alternative hypothesis that rangeland ecosystems and the people they support are highly vulnerable to climate change. Past climate is likely to become an increasingly poor predictor of the future, so there is a risk in relying on adaptation approaches developed solely in…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate Change in Grasslands, Shrublands, and Deserts of the Interior American West: A Review and Needs Assessment
Year: 2012
Recent research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the western interior of the United States in response to climate change. This volume reviews existing climate models that predict species and vegetation changes in the western United States, and it synthesizes knowledge about climate change impacts on the native fauna and flora of grasslands, shrublands and deserts of the interior American West. Species' responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment…
Publication Type: Report
Ecosystem Greenspots: Identifying Potential Drought, Fire, and Climate-Change Micro-Refuges
Year: 2012
In response to climate change and other threatening processes there is renewed interest in the role of refugia and refuges. In bioregions that experience drought and fire, micro-refuges can play a vital role in ensuring the persistence of species. We develop and apply an approach to identifying potential micro-refuges based on a time series of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (fraction of photosynthetically active radiation intercepted by the sunlit canopy; fPAR). The primary data for this analysis were NASA MODIS 16-day L3 Global 250 m (MOD13Q1) satellite imagery. This method draws upon…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Placing Forestry in the Assisted Migration Debate
Year: 2012
Assisted migration (AM) is often presented as a strategy to save species that are imminently threatened by rapid climate change. This conception of AM, which has generated considerable controversy, typically proposes the movement of narrowly distributed, threatened species to suitable sites beyond their current range limits. However, existing North American forestry operations present an opportunity to practice AM on a larger scale, across millions of hectares, with a focus on moving populations of widely distributed, nonthreatened tree species within their current range limits. Despite these…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Harmful filamentous cyanobacteria favoured by reduced water turnover with lake warming
Year: 2012
Anthropogenic-induced changes in nutrient ratios have increased the susceptibility of large temperate lakes to several effects of rising air temperatures and the resulting heating of water bodies. First, warming leads to stronger thermal stratification, thus impeding natural complete water turnover (holomixis), which compensates for oxygen deficits in the deep zones. Second, increased water temperatures and nutrient concentrations can directly favour the growth of harmful algae. Thus, lake-restoration programmes have focused on reducing nutrients to limit toxic algal blooms. Here we present…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Strategic planning for instream flow restoration: a case study of potential climate change impacts in the central Columbia River basin
Year: 2012
We provide a case study prioritizing instream flow restoration activities by sub-basin according to the habitat needs of Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed salmonids relative to climate change in the central Columbia River basin in Washington State (USA). The objective is to employ scenario analysis to inform and improve existing instream flow restoration projects. We assess the sensitivity of late summer (July, August, and September) flows to the following scenario simulations singly or in combination: climate change, changes in the quantity of water used for irrigation and possible changes…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Changes in Soil Chemical and Biological Properties After Thinning and Prescribed Fire for Ecosystem Restoration in a Rocky Mountain Douglas Fir Forest
Year: 2012
Practices such as thinning followed by prescribed burning, often termed ‘ecosystem restoration practices’, are being used in Rocky Mountain forests to prevent uncontrolled wildfire and restore forests to pre-settlement conditions. Prior to burning, surface fuels may be left or collected into piles, which may affect fire temperatures and attendant effects on the underlying soil. The objective of this study is to determine which pre-fire fuel management treatments best reduce fuel loadings without causing fire temperatures high enough to impair soil chemical and biological properties. Five fuel…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Seasonal variation in surface fuel moisture between unthinned and thinned mixed conifer forest, northern California, USA
Year: 2012
Reducing stand density is often used as a tool for mitigating the risk of high-intensity crown fires. However, concern has been expressed that opening stands might lead to greater drying of surface fuels, contributing to increased fire risk. The objective of this study was to determine whether woody fuel moisture differed between unthinned and thinned mixed-conifer stands. Sections of logs representing the 1000- and 10 000-h fuel sizes were placed at 72 stations within treatment units in the fall (autumn) of 2007. Following snow-melt in 2008, 10-h fuel sticks were added and all fuels were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Moisture desorption in mechanically masticated fuels: effects of particle fracturing and fuelbed compaction
Year: 2012
Mechanical mastication is increasingly used as a wildland fuel treatment, reducing standing trees and shrubs to compacted fuelbeds of fractured woody fuels. One major shortcoming in our understanding of these fuelbeds is how particle fracturing influences moisture gain or loss, a primary determinant of fire behaviour. To better understand fuel moisture dynamics, we measured particle and fuelbed drying rates of masticated Arctostaphylos manzanita and Ceanothus velutinus shrubs, common targets of mastication in fire-prone western USA ecosystems. Drying rates of intact and fractured particles…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate-Induced Changes in Lake Ecosystem Structure Inferred from Coupled Neo- and Paleoecological Approaches
Year: 2012
Over the 20th century, surface water temperatures have increased in many lake ecosystems around the world, but long-term trends in the vertical thermal structure of lakes remain unclear, despite the strong control that thermal stratification exerts on the biological response of lakes to climate change. Here we used both neo- and paleoecological approaches to develop a fossil-based inference model for lake mixing depths and thereby refine understanding of lake thermal structure change. We focused on three common planktonic diatom taxa, the distributions of which previous research suggests…
Publication Type: Journal Article
USGS Fire Science - Fire danger monitoring and forecasting
Year: 2012
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) uses moderate resolution satellite data to assess live fuel condition for estimating fire danger. Using 23 years of vegetation condition measurements, we are able to determine the relative greenness of current live fuels. High relative greenness values indicate the vegetation is healthy and vigorous; low greenness values indicate the vegetation is under stress, dry (possibly from drought), behind in annual development, or dead. Forest, shrub, and grassland vegetation with low relative greenness are susceptible to fire ignition during the fire season…
Publication Type: Report
Integrating Theoretical Climate and Fire Effects on Savanna and Forest Systems
Year: 2012
The role of fire and climate in determining savanna and forest distributions requires comprehensive theoretical reevaluation. Empirical studies show that climate constrains maximum tree cover and that fire feedbacks can reduce tree cover substantially, but neither the stability nor the dynamics of these systems are well understood. A theoretical integration of rainfall effects with fire processes in particular is lacking. We use simple, well-supported assumptions about the percolation dynamics of fire spread and the demographic effects of climate and fire on trees to build a dynamic model…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Predicting Dry Lightning Risk Nationwide
Year: 2012
Meteorologists developed two formulas to predict the probability of dry lightning throughout the continental United States and Alaska and parts of Canada. Predictions are made daily and are accessible through the web at http://www.airfire.org/tools/daily-fi re-weather/dry-lightning-probability. The emphasis is on the western United States, where dry lightning is a more common occurrence. Predictions are based on identifying days on which lightning is expected and separately determining whether there is likely to be at least 1/10th inch of accompanying rain. The formulas are run with the…
Publication Type: Report