Research Database
Displaying 121 - 140 of 213
Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression
Year: 2017
One crucial component of large fire response in the United States (US) is the sharing of wildland firefighting resources between regions: resources from regions experiencing low fire activity supplement resources in regions experiencing high fire activity. An important step towards improving the efficiency of resource sharing and related policies is to develop a better understanding of current assignment patterns. In this paper we examine the set of interregional wildland fire engine assignments for incidents in California and the Southwest Geographic Coordination Areas, utilising data from…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA?
Year: 2017
Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds
Year: 2017
Fire is a driving force in the North American landscape and predicting post-fire tree mortality is vital to land management. Post-fire tree mortality can have substantial economic and social impacts, and natural resource managers need reliable predictive methods to anticipate potential mortality following fire events. Current fire mortality models are limited to a few species and regions, notably Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii in the western United States. The efficacy of existing mortality models to predict fire-induced tree mortality is central to effective forest management.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States
Year: 2017
Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across broad spatial extents that mask geographical variation. This could result in overly broad or inappropriate management and policy decisions that neglect to…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Evaluating Prescribed Fire Effectiveness Using Permanent Monitoring Plot Data: A Case Study
Year: 2016
Since Euro-American settlement, ponderosa pine forests throughout the western United States have shifted from high fire frequency and open canopy savanna forests to infrequent fire and dense, closed canopy forests. Managers at Zion National Park, USA, reintroduced fire to counteract these changes and decrease the potential for high-severity fires. We analyzed existing permanent monitoring plot data collected between 1995 and 2010 to assess achievement of management objectives related to prescribed fire in ponderosa pine forests. Following first entry fire, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa C.…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Restoring forest structure and process stabilizes forest carbon in wildfire-prone southwestern ponderosa pine forests
Year: 2016
Changing climate and a legacy of fire-exclusion have increased the probability of high-severity wildfire, leading to an increased risk of forest carbon loss in ponderosa pine forests in the southwestern USA. Efforts to reduce high-severity fire risk through forest thinning and prescribed burning require both the removal and emission of carbon from these forests, and any potential carbon benefits from treatment may depend on the occurrence of wildfire. We sought to determine how forest treatments alter the effects of stochastic wildfire events on the forest carbon balance. We modeled three…
Publication Type: Journal Article
1984–2010 trends in fire burn severity and area for the conterminous US
Year: 2016
Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Climate-driven changes in forest succession and the influence of management on forest carbon dynamics in the Puget Lowlands of Washington State, USA
Year: 2016
Projecting the response of forests to changing climate requires understanding how biotic and abiotic controls on tree growth will change over time. As temperature and interannual precipitation variability increase, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to changing climate. Management actions that alter composition and density may help buffer forests against the effects of changing climate, but may require tradeoffs in ecosystem services. We sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and different management regimes would alter the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Quantifying the influence of previously burned areas on suppression effectiveness and avoided exposure: a case study of the Las Conchas Fire
Year: 2016
We present a case study of the Las Conchas Fire (2011) to explore the role of previously burned areas (wildfires and prescribed fires) on suppression effectiveness and avoided exposure. Methodological innovations include characterisation of the joint dynamics of fire growth and suppression activities, development of a fire line effectiveness framework, and quantification of relative fire line efficiencies inside and outside of previously burned areas. We provide descriptive statistics of several fire line effectiveness metrics. Additionally, we leverage burn probability modelling to examine…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Recovering lost ground: Effects of soil burn intensity on nutrients and ectomycorrhiza communities of ponderosa pine seedlings
Year: 2016
Fuel accumulation and climate shifts are predicted to increase the frequency of high-severity fires in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests of central Oregon. The combustion of fuels containing large downed wood can result in intense soil heating, alteration of soil properties, and mortality of microbes. Previous studies show ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) improve ponderosa seedling establishment after fire but did not compare EMF communities at different levels of soil burn intensity in a field setting. For this study, soil burn intensity effects on nutrients and EMF communities were…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Year: 2016
Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Did the 2002 Hayman Fire, Colorado, USA, Burn with Uncharacteristic Severity?
Year: 2016
There is considerable interest in evaluating whether recent wildfires in dry conifer forests of western North America are burning with uncharacteristic severity—that is, with a severity outside the historical range of variability. In 2002, the Hayman Fire burned an unlogged 3400 ha dry conifer forest landscape in the Colorado Front Range, USA, that had been the subject of previous fire history and forest age structure research. We opportunistically leveraged pre-existing data from this research, in combination with post-fire aerial imagery, to provide insight into whether the Hayman Fire’s…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California
Year: 2016
The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildland fire deficit and surplus in the western United States, 1984-2012
Year: 2015
Wildland fire is an important disturbance agent in the western US and globally. However, the natural role of fire has been disrupted in many regions due to the influence of human activities, which have the potential to either exclude or promote fire, resulting in a "fire deficit" or "fire surplus", respectively. In this study, we developed a model of expected area burned for the western US as a function of climate from 1984 to 2012. We then quantified departures from expected area burned to identify geographic regions with fire deficit or surplus. We developed our model of area burned as a…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling
Year: 2015
Wildfire activity and escalating suppression costs continue to threaten the financial health of federal land management agencies. In order to minimize and effectively manage the cost of financial risk, agencies need the ability to quantify that risk. A fundamental aim of this research effort, therefore, is to develop a process for generating risk-based metrics for annual suppression costs. Our modeling process borrows from actuarial science and the process of assigning insurance premiums based on distributions for the frequency and magnitude of claims, generating parameterized probability…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The cost of climate change: Ecosystem services and wildland fires
Year: 2015
Little research has focused on the economic impact associated with climate-change induced wildland fire on natural ecosystems and the goods and services they provide. We examine changes in wildland fire patterns based on the U.S. Forest Service's MC1 dynamic global vegetation model from 2013 to 2115 under two pre-defined scenarios: a reference (i.e., business-as-usual) and a greenhouse gas mitigation policy scenario. We construct a habitat equivalency model under which fuels management activities, actions commonly undertaken to reduce the frequency and/or severity of wildland fire, are used…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Developing a post-processor to link the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) and the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS)
Year: 2015
In this project, we developed a Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS, JFSP Project #) post-processor (FVS2FCCS) to convert FVS simulated treelist and surface fuel data into Fuel Characteristics Classification System (FCCS, JFSP Project #98-1-1-06) fuelbed format (.xml) that can be read and processed by the FCCS to create estimates of surface fire behavior, including reaction intensity (Btu ft-2 min-1 or kJ m2), rate-of-spread (ft min-1 or m min-1), and flame length (ft or m). Post-processors are programs that extend FVS modeling, reporting, and display capabilities. Our post-processor allows…
Publication Type: Report
Modeling wildfire regimes in forest landscapes: abstracting a complex reality
Year: 2015
Fire is a natural disturbance that is nearly ubiquitous in terrestrial ecosystems. The capacity to burn exists virtually wherever vegetation grows. In some forested landscapes, fire is a principal driver of rapid ecosystem change, resetting succession ( McKenzie et al. 1996a ) and changing wildlife habitat (Cushman et al. 2011 ), hydrology ( Feikema et al. 2013 ), element cycles ( Smithwick 2011 ), and even landforms (Pierce et al. 2004 ). In boreal forests, for example, recurring wildfi res are the main cause of compositional and spatial patterns ( Wein and MacLean 1983 ), where a fi re-…
Publication Type: Book Chapter
Restoration impacts on fuels and fire potential in a dryland tropical ecosystem dominated by the invasive grass Megathyrsus maximus
Year: 2015
Ecological restoration often attempts to promote native species while managing for disturbances such as fire and non-native invasions. The goal of this research was to investigate whether restoration of a non-native, invasive Megathyrsus maximus (guinea grass) tropical grassland could simultaneously promote native species and reduce fire potential. Megathyrsus maximus was suppressed with herbicide, and three suites of native species—each including the same groundcover and shrub, and one of three tree species—were outplanted in a randomized, complete block design that also included herbicide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Modeling the direct effect of salvage logging on long-term temporal fuel dynamics in dry-mixed conifer forests
Year: 2015
Salvage logging has been proposed to reduce post-fire hazardous fuels and mitigate re-burn effects, but debate remains about its effectiveness when considering fuel loadings are dynamic, and re-burn occurrence is stochastic, in time. Therefore, evaluating salvage loggings capacity to reduce hazardous fuels requires estimating fuel loadings in unmanipulated and salvaged stands over long time periods. We sampled for snag dynamics, decomposition rates, and fuel loadings within unmanipulated high-severity portions of 7 fires, spanning a 24-year chronosequence, in dry-mixed conifer forests of…
Publication Type: Journal Article