Research Database
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Long-term tree population growth can predict woody encroachment patterns
Year: 2025
Recent increases in woody plant density in dryland ecosystems—or “woody encroachment”—around the world are often attributed to land-use changes such as increased livestock grazing and wildfire suppression or to global environmental trends (e.g., increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide). While such changes have undoubtedly impacted ecosystem structure and function, the evidence linking them to woody encroachment is mixed, and the underlying processes are not fully understood. To clarify the role of demographic processes in changing woody plant abundance, we conducted a meta-analysis of tree age…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Trailing edge contractions common in interior western US trees under varying disturbances
Year: 2025
As climate warms, trees are expected to track their ideal climate, referred to as ‘range shifts’; however, lags in tree range shifts are currently common. Disturbance events that kill trees may help catalyse tree migrations by removing biotic competition, but can also limit regeneration by eliminating seed sources, and it is unknown whether disturbance will facilitate or inhibit tree migrations in the face of climate change. Here we use national forest inventory data to show that seedlings of 15 dominant tree species in the interior western United States occupy historically cooler areas than…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area
Year: 2025
Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires increased 40% globally from 2002 to 2021 despite a 26% decline in burned area. Increased exposure was mainly driven by enhanced colocation of wildland fires and human settlements, doubling the exposure per unit burned area. We show that population dynamics accounted for 25% of the 440 million human exposures to wildland fires. Although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have…
Publication Type: Journal Article