Fire simulation

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Avoided wildfire impact modeling with counterfactual probabilistic analysis

Year of Publication

2023

Publication Type

Assessing the effectiveness and measuring the performance of fuel treatments and other wildfire risk mitigation efforts are challenging endeavors. Perhaps the most complicated is quantifying avoided impacts. In this study, we show how probabilistic counterfactual analysis can help with performance evaluation.

Changes in fire behavior caused by fire exclusion and fuel build-up vary with topography in California montane forests, USA

Year of Publication

2022

Publication Type

Journal Article

Wildfire sizes and proportions burned with high severity effects are increasing in seasonally dry forests, especially in the western USA. A critical need in efforts to restore or maintain these forest ecosystems is to determine where fuel build-up caused by fire exclusion reaches thresholds that compromise resilience to fire.

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