historical range of variability
Trends in forest structure restoration need over three decades with increasing wildfire activity in the interior Pacific Northwest US
Wildfire is a keystone ecological process in many forests worldwide, but fire exclusion and suppression have driven profound shifts in forest structure (e.g., increased density, canopy cover, biomass) that have contributed to increases in large, high-severity fire in many seasonally dry forests and woodlands of the western United States.
The missing fire: quantifying human exclusion of wildfire in Pacific Northwest forests, USA
Western U.S. wildfire area burned has increased dramatically over the last half‐century. How contemporary extent and severity of wildfires compare to the pre‐settlement patterns to which ecosystems are adapted is debated. We compared large wildfires in Pacific Northwest forests from 1984 to 2015 to modeled historic fire regimes.
Looking beyond the mean: Drivers of variability in postfire stand development of conifers in Greater Yellowstone
High-severity, infrequent fires in forests shape landscape mosaics of stand age and structure for decades to centuries, and forest structure can vary substantially even among same-aged stands. This variability among stand structures can affect landscape-scale carbon and nitrogen cycling, wildlife habitat availability, and vulnerability to subsequent disturbances.
Efficacy of resource objective wildfires for restoration of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests in northern Arizona
Current conditions in dry forests of the western United State have given rise to policy mandates for accelerated ecological restoration on U.S. National Forest System and other public lands. In southwestern ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) forests, mechanized tree thinning and prescribed fire are common restoration treatments but are not acceptable for all sites.
Did the 2002 Hayman Fire, Colorado, USA, Burn with Uncharacteristic Severity?
There is considerable interest in evaluating whether recent wildfires in dry conifer forests of western North America are burning with uncharacteristic severity—that is, with a severity outside the historical range of variability.
A state-and-transition simulation modeling approach for estimating the historical range of variability
Reference ecological conditions offer important context for land managers as they assess the condition of their landscapes and provide benchmarks for desired future conditions. State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) are commonly used to estimate reference conditions that can be used to evaluate current ecosystem conditions and to guide land management decisions and activities.
Historic Variability: Informing Restoration Strategies, Not Prescribing Targets
The concept of historic range of variability (HRV) is briefly evaluatedwithin the context of its application in ecosystem managementover the past two decades. Despite caveats to the contrary, animplicit assumption continues to emerge of climatic stationarity,and, by corollary, that presettlement centuries provide an appropriatereference period.
Communication of the Role of Natural Variability in Future North American Climate
As climate models improve, decision-makers' expectations for accurate climate predictions are growing. Natural climate variability, however, poses inherent limits to climate predictability and the related goal of adaptation guidance in many places, as illustrated here for North America.