ESFPDT
Synopsis: Rain and high mountain snow this weekend and early next
week will lead to rising water levels on area streams and rivers.
Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected in the Cascades
and 1 to 3 inches in the eastern Oregon mountains. In addition,
temperatures rising to the 40s and lower 50s in the mountains will
lead to snow melt adding even more water to area rivers and streams.
What: Precipitation and snow melt due to warmer temperatures this
weekend into early next week will lead to rises on area creeks,
streams and rivers. Rivers are low enough so that most rivers will
remain below bankfull. However, the Walla Walla River at Touchet,
the Klickitat River at Pitt, and the Naches River at Cliffdell are
expected to approach bankfull late Sunday night before receding
Monday and Tuesday. Another concern will be rapid rises on smaller
streams and creeks due to heavier downpours and snowmelt. This could
lead to debris flows on recent burn scars and over steep terrain.
When: Rain will continue through Monday with the heaviest rain
expected tonight and Sunday.
Where: The East Slopes of the Washington and Oregon Cascades, the
Simcoe Highlands, the Northern and Southern Blue Mountains, the Blue
Mountain Foothills of Washington and Oregon, Wallowa County and the
Grande Ronde Valley.
This Hydrologic Outlook will be updated as needed due to changing
conditions.
AVWPQR
The following message is transmitted at the request of the Northwest
Avalanche Center.
...The Northwest Avalanche Center in Seattle has issued an Avalanche
Warning...
* WHAT...Very dangerous conditions are expected overnight and
continue into Sunday as heavy wet snow and rain overload a dry and
weak snowpack. Very large natural avalanches may occur and could
descend into lower elevation forested areas.
* WHERE...Areas near Mt Hood, Stevens Pass, Snoqualmie Pass, and the
west slopes of the Cascades from I-90 to the Columbia River,
including Crystal Mountain, Mt Rainier, White Pass, Mt Saint
Helens, and Mt Adams. As well as the East slopes of the Cascades
from the Canadian border to Lake Chelan, including Washington
Pass, Methow Valley, and Twisp areas.
* WHEN...In effect from Sat 18:00 PST to Sun 18:00 PST.
* IMPACTS...Very large natural avalanches are expected. These will
be more than enough to bury, injure, or kill backcountry travelers.
* PRECAUTIONARY / PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...Avoid all areas where
avalanches can start, run, or stop. This includes openings in the
forest well below large steep alpine slopes.
Consult https://www.nwac.us/ or www.avalanche.org for more detailed
information.
Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the coverage
area of this or any avalanche center.
* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph
expected.
* WHERE...Central Oregon.
* WHEN...From 4 PM to 10 PM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph
expected.
* WHERE...Grande Ronde Valley.
* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be through the Ladd and
Pyles canyons.
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
* WHERE...Foothills of the Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon.
* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
expected.
* WHERE...North Central Oregon.
* WHEN...From 4 PM to 10 PM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph
expected for the base of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon.
* WHERE...Foothills of the Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon.
* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Lake, Klamath, and Modoc counties, including
Summer Lake, Wagontire, Valley Falls, Paisley, the Warner and Hart
Mountains, Winter Rim, and portions of Highways 395, 140, and 31.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
Isolated power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.
* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible.
* WHERE...The Curry, Coos, and Douglas county coasts, including
Brookings, Gold Beach, Port Orford, Bandon, North Bend, Coos Bay,
Reedsport, all capes and headlands, and exposed portions of
Highway 101.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines,
and damage unsecured property. Isolated power outages are
possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles.
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington,
including the following counties, in Oregon, Benton, Clackamas,
Clatsop, Columbia, Cowlitz, Hood River, Lane, Lincoln, Linn,
Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Tillamook, Washington, and Yamhill. In
Washington, Clark, Pacific, Skamania, and Wahkiakum Lowlands.
* WHEN...From late tonight through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,
especially for rivers draining the Willapa Hills and Oregon Coast
Range. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
Landslides are possible through this period, especially over the
Cascades due to heavy rainfall above 7,000 feet combined with
snowmelt. There is low probability for debris flows as rainfall
rates are not expected to meet thresholds over recently burned
areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- An atmospheric river and series of frontal systems will
produce periods of heavy rainfall over northwest Oregon and
Southwest Washington through Monday. The heaviest rain will
be over the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades
where rain totals from Saturday through Monday night will
range from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Snow levels will rise to above 7,000 feet on
Sunday, and snow melt due to rain falling on the Cascade snow
pack could cause additional flooding concerns for drainages
from the Cascades along with enhanced risk of landslides.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
* WHAT...Flooding of streams or creeks caused by excessive rainfall
is possible.
* WHERE...Low lying areas along the Curry County Coast and South
Central Oregon Coast in Coos County and extreme western Douglas
County.
* WHEN...From late tonight through Monday morning.
* IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Area
creeks and streams are running high and could flood with more
heavy rain.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A strong atmospheric river with plenty of moisture will bring
heavy rainfall to the Oregon coast. Rain accumulation will be
up to 6 inches in the rugged terrain of Curry County.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington,
including the following counties, in Oregon, Benton, Clackamas,
Clatsop, Columbia, Cowlitz, Hood River, Lane, Lincoln, Linn,
Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Tillamook, Washington, and Yamhill. In
Washington, Clark, Pacific, and Skamania.
* WHEN...From late tonight through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations,
especially for rivers draining the Willapa Hills and Oregon Coast
Range. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
Landslides are possible through this period, especially over the
Cascades due to heavy rainfall above 7,000 feet combined with
snowmelt. There is low probability for debris flows as rainfall
rates are not expected to meet thresholds over recently burned
areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- An atmospheric river and series of frontal systems will
produce periods of heavy rainfall over northwest Oregon and
Southwest Washington through Monday. The heaviest rain will
be over the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades
where rain totals from Saturday through Monday night will
range from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts
possible. Snow levels will rise to above 7,000 feet on
Sunday, and snow melt due to rain falling on the Cascade snow
pack could cause additional flooding concerns for drainages
from the Cascades along with enhanced risk of landslides.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Lake, Klamath, and Modoc counties, including
Summer Lake, Wagontire, Valley Falls, Paisley, the Warner and Hart
Mountains, Winter Rim, and portions of Highways 395, 140, and 31.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
Isolated power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.
* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible.
* WHERE...The Curry, Coos, and Douglas county coasts, including
Brookings, Gold Beach, Port Orford, Bandon, North Bend, Coos Bay,
Reedsport, all capes and headlands, and exposed portions of
Highway 101.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines,
and damage unsecured property. Isolated power outages are
possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile
vehicles.
ESFBOI
Moderate to heavy rain and low elevation snowmelt Sunday and
Monday will lead to rises on rivers, creeks, and streams across
portions of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho (particularly
the Weiser River Basin). Saturated or frozen soils in some areas
will increase runoff. Snow and ice may clog culverts and ditches
causing water to back-up and pond in low lying and poor drainage
areas. Additionally, ice jams could develop on any rivers, creeks,
or streams with existing ice cover and cause localized flooding.
Rivers in these areas will continue to run high through next week
with some waterways potentially reaching bankfull.
Stay tuned to the forecast for the latest temperature and
precipitation trends, along with any warnings or advisories that
may be issued.
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 and 50 mph
expected for the base of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon.
* WHERE...Foothills of the Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.
* WHERE...Foothills of the Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 40 and 55 mph
expected.
* WHERE...Grande Ronde Valley.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday.
* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will be through the Ladd and
Pyles canyons.
ESFPQR
An series of frontal systems will bring heavy rainfall to northwest
Oregon and southwest Washington through Monday. Heavier rain will
begin with the arrival of a front this afternoon, and intensify
tonight into Sunday. After a brief lull in precipitation late Sunday,
another strong system will bring additional moderate to heavy
rainfall on Monday. This will lead to rises on rivers and creeks,
especially for rivers draining the Willapa Hills and Oregon Coast
Range through Monday. Main stem rivers may be delayed to respond, and
flooding may occur beyond this time frame.
There is around a 20-30% chance of the Wilson River, the Grays River,
and other localized quick responding coastal rivers of reaching minor
flood stage by late Sunday or early Monday. More widespread river
flooding is not expected, but increases in forecast precipitation
amounts could lead to additional rises on area rivers if heavier
rainfall stalls over the area for a longer period of time.
Heavy rainfall along the Cascades combined with snowmelt will lead to
an enhanced risk of landslides.
Heavy rainfall may also lead to ponding of water and localized urban
flooding, especially in low-lying areas or other poor-drainage areas.
Heavy rainfall will also increase the potential for landslides in
areas of steep terrain. The probability of debris flows is currently
low as rainfall rates are not expected to meet thresholds over areas
that have been burned by wildfires over the past few years.
Shifts in the forecast storm track can change the outlook and
probabilities for river flooding, so be sure to monitor
weather.gov/portland for the latest weather updates, as well as any
watches, warnings, or advisories that may be issued. To view the
latest river forecasts, visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/pqr.
* WHAT...Southwest winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
possible.
* WHERE...Portions of Lake, Klamath, and Modoc counties, including
Summer Lake, Wagontire, Valley Falls, Paisley, the Warner and Hart
Mountains, Winter Rim, and portions of Highways 395, 140, and 31.
* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.
* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.
