lightning-caused fires

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology.

Background Current guidance for implementation of United States federal wildland fire policy charges agencies with restoring and maintaining fire-adapted ecosystems while limiting the extent of wildfires that threaten life and property, weighed against the risks posed to firefighters.

Climate change is expected to increase fire activity in many regions of the globe, but the relative role of human vs. lightning-caused ignitions on future fire regimes is unclear. We developed statistical models that account for the spatiotemporal ignition patterns by cause in the eastern slopes of the Cascades in Oregon, USA.