Research Database
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Characterising ignition precursors associated with high levels of deployment of wildland fire personnel
Year: 2024
BackgroundAs fire seasons in the Western US intensify and lengthen, fire managers have been grappling with increases in simultaneous, significant incidents that compete for response resources and strain capacity of the current system.AimsTo address this challenge, we explore a key research question: what precursors are associated with ignitions that evolve into incidents requiring high levels of response personnel?MethodsWe develop statistical models linking human, fire weather and fuels related factors with cumulative and peak personnel…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Probabilistic Forecasting of Lightning Strikes over the Continental USA and Alaska: Model Development and Verification
Year: 2024
Lightning is responsible for the most area annually burned by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm running on a uniform 20 km grid over the continental USA and Alaska. This is the first and only high-resolution lightning forecasting model for North America derived from 29-year-long data records. The algorithm consists of a large…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Application of Participatory Process Mapping to Evaluate Environmental Decision-Making and Implementation
Year: 2024
Environmental governance outcomes hinge on the design and implementation of management decisions. Yet, available research methodologies can be limited in their ability to capture the complexity of decision-making and implementation processes and in turn predict and explain environmental governance outcomes. We present participatory process mapping as a method for examining the pathways that emerge and evolve over time that result in natural resource management decisions and on-the-ground outcomes, as perceived by participants in collaborative processes. The approach leverages a large-N…
Publication Type: Journal Article