Research Database
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Probabilistic Forecasting of Lightning Strikes over the Continental USA and Alaska: Model Development and Verification
Year: 2024
Lightning is responsible for the most area annually burned by wildfires in the extratropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, predicting the occurrence of wildfires requires reliable forecasting of the chance of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes during storms. Here, we describe the development and verification of a probabilistic lightning-strike algorithm running on a uniform 20 km grid over the continental USA and Alaska. This is the first and only high-resolution lightning forecasting model for North America derived from 29-year-long data records. The algorithm consists of a large…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking2023 Wildfire Season in Canada
Year: 2024
The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented in its scale andintensity, spanning from mid-April to late October and across much of theforested regions of Canada. Here, we summarize the main causes and impactsof this exceptional season. The record-breaking total area burned (~15 Mha)can be attributed to several environmental factors that converged early in theseason: early snowmelt, multiannual drought conditions in western Canada,and the rapid transition to drought in eastern Canada. Anthropogenic climatechange enabled sustained extreme fire weather conditions, as the meanMay–October…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Biogeographic patterns of daily wildfire spread and extremes across North America
Year: 2024
Introduction: Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme single-day fire spread events, with major ecological and social implications. In contrast with well-documented spatio-temporal patterns of wildfire ignitions and perimeters, daily progression remains poorly understood across continental spatial scales, particularly for extreme single-day events (“blow ups”). Here, we characterize daily wildfire spread across North America, including occurrence of extreme single-day events, duration and seasonality of fire and extremes, and ecoregional climatic…
Publication Type: Journal Article