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Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires

Year of Publication
2023
Publication Type

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25% vs. 1.27%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10% less than the threshold. Between 2016 and 2021, the risk ratio was highest in 2020 (2.3 times), potentially contributing to the record-breaking wildfire activity in 2020. Our estimates can inform several wildfire prediction and management applications, including wildfire suppression, prescribed burn planning, and public safety power shutoff implementation.

Authors
K. Rao; P.A. Williams; N.S. Diffenbaugh; M. Yebra; C. Bryant; A.G. Konings
Citation

Rao K, Williams PA, Diffenbaugh NS, Yebra M, Bryant C, Konings AG. Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires. Geophysical Research Letters. 2023 ;50.

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