Predicting snag fall in an old-growth forest after fire

Snags, standing dead trees, are becoming more abundant in forests as tree mortality rates continue to increase due to fire, drought, and bark beetles. Snags provide habitat for birds and small mammals, and when they fall to the ground, the resulting logs provide additional wildlife habitat and affect nutrient cycling, fuel loads, and fire behavior. Predicting how long snags will remain standing after fire is essential for managing habitat, understanding chemical cycling in forests, and modeling forest succession and fuels. Few studies, however, have quantified how fire changes snag fall dynamics. Results We compared post-fire fall rates of snags that existed pre-fire (n = 2013) and snags created during or after the fire (n = 8222), using 3 years of pre-fire and 5 years of post-fire data from an annually monitored, 25.6-ha spatially explicit plot in an old-growth Abies concolor–Pinus lambertiana forest in the Sierra Nevada, CA, USA. The plot burned at low to moderate severity in the Rim Fire of 2013. We used random forest models to (1) identify predictors of post-fire snag fall for pre-existing and new snags and (2) assess the influence of spatial neighborhood and local fire severity on snag fall after fire. Fall rates of pre-existing snags increased 3 years after fire. Five years after fire, pre-existing snags were twice as likely to fall as new snags. Pre-existing snags were most likely to persist 5 years after fire if they were > 50 cm in diameter, > 20 m tall, and charred on the bole to heights above 3.7 m. New snags were also more likely to persist 5 years after fire if they were > 20 m tall. Spatial neighborhood (e.g., tree density) and local fire severity (e.g., fire-caused crown injury) within 15 m of each snag barely improved predictions of snag fall after fire. Conclusions Land managers should expect fall rates of pre-existing snags to exceed fall rates of new snags within 5 years after fire, an important habitat consideration because pre-existing snags represent a wider range of size and decay classes.