Research Database
Displaying 1 - 11 of 11
Delayed Phenology and Reduced Fitness Associated with Climate Change in a Wild Hibernator
Year: 2012
The most commonly reported ecological effects of climate change are shifts in phenologies, in particular of warmer spring temperatures leading to earlier timing of key events. Among animals, however, these reports have been heavily biased towards avian phenologies, whereas we still know comparatively little about other seasonal adaptations, such as mammalian hibernation. Here we show a significant delay (0.47 days per year, over a 20-year period) in the hibernation emergence date of adult females in a wild population of Columbian ground squirrels in Alberta, Canada. This finding was related…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Eco-Evolutionary Responses of Biodiversity to Climate Change
Year: 2012
Climate change is predicted to alter global species diversity, the distribution of human pathogens and ecosystem services. Forecasting these changes and designing adequate management of future ecosystem services will require predictive models encompassing the most fundamental biotic responses. However, most present models omit important processes such as evolution and competition. Here we develop a spatially explicit eco-evolutionary model of multi-species responses to climate change. We demonstrate that both dispersal and evolution differentially mediate extinction risks and biodiversity…
Publication Type: Journal Article
The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges
Year: 2012
Projected effects of climate change on animal distributions primarily focus on consequences of temperature and largely ignore impacts of altered precipitation. While much evidence supports temperature-driven range shifts, there is substantial heterogeneity in species' responses that remains poorly understood. We resampled breeding ranges of birds across three elevational transects in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, USA, that were extensively surveyed in the early 20th century. Presence absence comparisons were made at 77 sites and occupancy models were used to separate significant range shifts…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projecting future distributions of ecosystem climate niches: Uncertainties and management applications
Year: 2012
Projecting future distributions of ecosystems or species climate niches has widely been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change. However, variability in such projections for the future periods, particularly the variability arising from uncertain future climates, remains a critical challenge for incorporating these projections into climate change adaptation strategies. We combined the use of a robust statistical modeling technique with a simple consensus approach consolidating projected outcomes for multiple climate change scenarios, and exemplify how the results could guide…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Meta-analysis of avian and small-mammal response to fire severity and fire surrogate treatments in US fire-prone forests
Year: 2012
Management in fire-prone ecosystems relies widely upon application of prescribed fire and/or fire surrogate (e.g., forest thinning) treatments to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem function. Recently, published literature examining wildlife response to fire and fire management has increased rapidly. However, none of this literature has been synthesized quantitatively, precluding assessment of consistent patterns of wildlife response among treatment types. Using meta- analysis, we examined the scientific literature on vertebrate demographic responses to burn severity (low/moderate, high),…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Projected range shifting by montane mammals under climate change: implications for Cascadia's National Parks
Year: 2012
We examined potential impacts of climate change over the next century on eight mammal species of conservation concern in western Washington State, under four warming scenarios. Using two species distribution models, including a logistic regression-based model and the "maximum entropy" (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the location and extent of the potential current and future range of each species based on a suite of environmental and geographical variables. Both models projected significant losses in range size within the focal area over the next century across all warming scenarios. Projections…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Decline of an Endangered Amphibian During an Extreme Climatic Event
Year: 2012
Climate change is a poorly understood, emerging threat to many amphibian species. One of the ways climate change is likely to affect amphibians is through increased recruitment failure associated with more frequent climatic extremes. To understand the risk posed by this threat, we combined 13 years of annual monitoring and multi-scaled habitat modelling at the site (n = 60), pool (n = 105) and nest (n = 170) levels to investigate the decline of the endangered northern corroboree frog (Pseudophryne pengilleyi), during the most severe drought on record in southern Australia. We documented the…
Publication Type: Journal Article
Wildfire Suppression Contracting: The Effect of Local Business Capacity During Large Wildfires
Year: 2012
Contracting capacity and local capture can be the result of local economic conditions (supply side conditions) as well as agency contracting practices (demand side conditions). In order to capture contracts locally, local businesses that can perform the work need to exist, and past experience contracting with the federal government is a reasonable indicator of that capacity. To better understand local contracting capacity, we examined how local contract capture varied between wildfires and the relationship between local capture and contracting capacity measures. We investigated how the number…
Publication Type: Report
Developing Socioeconomic Performance Measures for the Watershed Condition Framework
Year: 2012
The purpose of this report is to propose principles and strategies for creating socioeconomic performance measures, as well as identify potential measures that could be integrated into the WCF and other restoration frameworks in the short term. It also recommends a longer-term strategy to develop a social condition assessment and performance accountability system that could be paired with the WCF and terrestrial condition framework currently being developed. Finally, this report identifies potential barriers and challenges to adopting new performance measures, and potential approaches to…
Publication Type: Report
Grazing After the Burn
Year: 2012
The rangelands and dry forests of Eastern Washington are considered “disturbance-driven” ecosystems. Disturbances are simply events that disturb normal ecosystem processes: nutrient and water cycling, plant growth and reproduction, animal interactions, etc. While all ecosystems experience some forms of disturbance, areas (like Eastern Washington) with extreme temperature variation, rough topography, scarcity of water, high soils variability, and high fire frequency experience more frequent and more severe disturbance than a Florida swamp forest, for an obvious example. Fire and grazing are…
Publication Type: Report